Transcript
1. AHMEDABAD RESIDENTIAL & OFFICE JULY TO DECEMBER 2017 KnightFrank.co.in 2. 2 RESIDENTIAL RECAP H1 2017 Launches hit new low in H1 2017 Developers switched focus towards affordable housing with 75% of the launches in the under INR 50 lakh segment Proximity to industrial clusters made West Ahmedabad a preferred pocket 3. Impact of RERA & GST compliance 3 33,175 45,120 30,758 23,867 14,011 15,553 14,009 4,790 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 66% YoY Yearly launches Launches plummet to decadal low Noofunits 4. 4 9,021 4,991 8,062 7,491 8,809 5,200 1,874 2,916 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 44% YoY Half-yearly launches RERA and GST compliance holds back launches in H2 2017 Noofunits 5. 5 INR H2 2016 H2 2017 <2.5 mn 30% 33% 2.5-5 mn 43% 45% 5-7.5 mn 18% 9% 7.5-10 mn 6% 4% 10-20 mn 3% 9% Ticket sizes that saw maximum change in H2 2017 Share of launches under INR 5 mn continues to hold steady 6. 6 19,424 29,694 30,577 25,592 18,490 16,826 15,956 15,741 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Noofunits Yearly sales Sales remain tepid even on the back of sops and discounts by developers 7. 7 10,113 14,051 14,569 11,938 8,019 9,075 7,800 H2 2010 H2 2011 H2 2012 H2 2013 H2 2014 H2 2015 H2 2016 H2 2017 Noofunits Half-yearly sales Overall on a decline since 2011, sales pick up 5% YoY in H2 2017 7,400 Lower base effect of demonetisation-hit H2 2016 8. 1,899 units -35% EAST NORTH WEST CENTRAL SOUTH 2,589 units 18% 1,876 units 18% 553 units -17% 883 units 3% Micro-market half- yearly sales Affordable home sales lift West and North Ahmedabad 9. 9 2,421 2,496 2,645 2,730 2,770 2,820 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700 2,800 2,900 Q4 2012 Q4 2013 Q4 2014 Q4 2015 Q4 2016 Q4 2017 2% YoY While other cities grapple with price issues, Ahmedabad records 2% price growth 10. 12-month price change Across the city, prices have gone up between 1% and 4% AMBAVADI INR 5,700-5,826/sq ft 4% NAVRANGPURA INR 5,400-5,555/sq ft 3% NIKOL INR 2,000-2,160/sq ft 2% VASTRAL INR 2,000-2,132/sq ft 3% CHANDKHEDA INR 2,650-2,769/sq ft 1% MOTERA INR 3,400-3,589/sq ft 4% ASLALI CIRCLE INR 1,280- 1,354/sq ft 1% BOPAL INR 3,200-3,223/sq ft 3% PRAHLAD NAGAR INR 5,480-5,513/sq ft 1% 11. 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 11 CPI AHMEDABAD Residential prices up by 2% compared to an inflation growth of 5.5% in 2017 Price growth evident, albeit under retail inflation 12. 12 Ahmedabad an affordable market, well within Knight Frank Affordability Benchmark* of 4.5 (*house price to income ratio) 2017 3.5 2010 4.3 13. QTS levels down to 7 from 9 quarters in H2 2017 Unsold inventory declines 29% YoY Analysis of unsold inventory and QTS 13 44,245 41,205 41,368 39,782 40,035 37,835 32,934 26,884 7.0 7.3 8.4 8.7 8.5 8.6 7.7 7.0 - 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 7.0 8.0 9.0 10.0 -10,00020,00030,00040,00050,000 H1 2014 H2 2014 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 QTS UnsoldInventory Unsold inventory QTS 14. EAST NORTH WEST CENTRAL SOUTH 1,882 units QTS: 7.2 Age: 7.6 6,452 units QTS: 7 Age: 9.6 7,796 units QTS: 7.7 Age: 9.1 6,721 units QTS: 8.2 Age: 12.3 4,032 units QTS: 8.8 Age: 11.5 Unsold inventory in Ahmedabad is less than two years old - sign of healthy market Age and QTS in quarters 15. KEY FINDINGS 15 01 03 02 04 Launches down 89% since the peak of 2011 While other cities grapple with price issues, Ahmedabad records a price growth • Prices up by 2% YoY in 2017 Unsold inventory in is less than two years old - sign of healthy market • East Ahmedabad is one of the better performing markets with a QTS of 7 and its age of inventory is 9.6 Sales volumes in H2 2017 recorded 5% surge YoY • Affordable housing pockets of East and North Ahmedabad attract nearly 60% of the total sales • Developers shift focus on completing existing projects 16. 16 OFFICE 17. 17 1.4 1.7 2.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 2015 2016 2017 Yearly new completions New completions more than double over three years 75% YoY Mn.Sq.ft. 18. 18 0.6 0.8 0.6 1.1 2.2 0.7 H1 2015 H2 2015 H1 2016 H2 2016 H1 2017 H2 2017 Half-yearly new completions New completions dwindle; developers switch focus to residential project completion 36% YoY Mn.Sq.ft. 19. 19 0.80 0.95 1.46 2015 2016 2017 53% YoY Mn.Sq.ft.Yearly transactions Office market on an upward trajectory For the first time, annual transaction volume crosses 1 mn sq ft 20. 20 0.30 0.20 0.30 H2 2015 H2 2016 H2 2017 Mn.Sq.ft.Half-yearly transactions Availability of quality office space at competitive rates coupled with pick up in GIFT city improves transaction volume 21. 21 17.5 19.6 23.6 10 15 20 25 2015 2016 2017 Vacancy Vacancy levels increased on account of huge supply 22. GIFT in PBD accounted for all office transactions in H2 2017 CBD WEST INR 40-43/sq ft/month 1% PBD INR 40-41/sq ft/month 9% 12 month change 23. 23 Industry H2 2017 H2 2016 BANKING, FINANCIAL SERVICES & INSURANCE 42% 35% IT/ITES 14% 0% MANUFACTURING 8% 26% OTHER SERVICES 36% 39% Significant drop in the share of the manufacturing sector IT/ITeS makes in-roads with 14% share 24. KEY FINDINGS 01 03 02 04 24 Office market on an upward trajectory Share of manufacturing in transactions dwindles Vacancy levels increased on account of huge supply GIFT emerges as a major office market, SG Highway continues to be a major market in CBD west 25. AHMEDABAD RESIDENTIAL & OFFICE Amidst price correction in most cities, Ahmedabad records an appreciation in the residential segment Relatively new office market as compared to other metros shows robust demand momentum
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