Transcript
Media Impressions Friday, August 10, 2007
Let’s go to the video It was significant news when Nielsen reported that more than 60% of U.S. broadband Internet users watched video at home or at work as of March 2007, which is significantly up from the 16% reported earlier in September 2006. Also interesting and found in their recent survey study for CTAM (Cable & Telecommunications Association for Marketing), “A Barometer of Broadband Content and its Users”, that about a third of respondents said that watching broadband video had increased their TV viewing time, while only 13% said it decreased their traditional viewing time; and, an additional 32 million broadband video users said they would consider watching more TV programs over the Internet. In light of the continued trend of declining ratings on television, this was insightful news for the industry. Subsequently, like with any communication vehicle which has a huge potential of profiting from marketing and advertising budgets, there have been a slew of many estimates on how big will this online video arena will get. *
Emarketer estimates that U.S. online video advertising spending projected to surpass $1 billion next year, $2 billion in 2009 and $3 billion in 2010.
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According to an August 2007, another competitive estimate by Understanding & Solutions via press release, reported that Internet television advertising revenue will hit $10 billion worldwide by 2011, which is estimated to equal 18% of all Internet advertising that year, currently forecasted at about $60 billion and compared to $190 billion estimated for broadcast TV then. "Globally, we estimate there are more than 20 billion videos being streamed across the Web each and every month. In the US alone, active Internet video users are streaming an average of 55 videos per month, and this is just the beginning, [as the amount of video on the Internet is doubling each year.]" Understanding & Solutions.
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In a press release, iSuppli estimated worldwide online TV revenues for 2011 at $5.8 billion, compared to $614 million in 2007.
Overall, with the increased prevalence of videos, consumers are increasingly interested in the diversity of videos and the relative convenience of online access. AOL's video search company, Truveo, reported that they have been experiencing a steady increase in search queries of up to 40% month over month since 2006. When it comes to video searching, after Google acquired YouTube last year, the PAGE 1
Let’s go to the video (continued) Top 10 Downstream Search Engine Visited by US Internet Users After Visiting News and Media Websites, June 2007 (% of Total Visits) Google 4.19% Yahoo! Search
1.09%
MSN Search
0.40%
MSN Video
0.37%
Ask.com
0.16%
Google Image Search
0.13%
Windows Live Search
0.13%
CNN.com - search
0.12%
AOL Search
0.09%
My Web Search
0.08%
Source: Data is from the July 2007 Hitwise Industry Report for News & Media. Note: Results are based on US Internet activity on 7,990 news & media Web sites during the month of June 2007.
Types of Content Downloaded &/or Streamed By US Online Video Viewers 2006 (% of Total) News/Current events
13.7%
Movie/TV trailers
12.0%
Music videos
10.9%
User-generated videos
9.4%
Jokes/bloopers
9.3%
Weather information
8.0%
Entertainment news/ Movie reviews
7.3%
TV Shows (Full episodes or excerpts)
6.5%
Sports clips/Highlights
6.4%
Other
5.1%
Cartoons
4.3%
Business/Financial news
4.0%
Full length movies
3.2%
Source: Emarketer August 2007 Note: Ages 3+, online video viewer defined as an individual who downloads or streams video (content or advertising), at least once a month; numbers may not add up to 100% due to rounding.
company evolved YouTube as its video-hosting site & turned Google Video into a video-search destination. The continual debate with this process is that Google Video searched only the videos hosted on Google sites and not videos across the web. To-date, Google is now just one of many “start-up” competitors & established portals that are (still) planning to establish themselves with advanced sophisticated video-search techniques including the conversion of speech to text and detecting multiple images that appear within a video format. In light of all these significant trends, both investment potential & consumer viewing, and the likelihood that commercials will sooner than later take on the online videos format and evolve this developing industry field more, there is also increasing concern over who will really watch videos online if they were ads, the number of videos each will view and how long these units would/should play if ran. Ultimately, audience reactions to these online video advertising will immediately impact and transform how marketers & Web publishers utilize this online medium. PAGE 2
Let’s go to the video (continued)
Summary of Selected Spending & Online Video Viewing Trend Charts 2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
US Digital Movie Download Spending $(mills) - see note #1
35
114
245
447
651
846
US Online Video Ad Spending $(mills) - see note #2
410
775
1,350
2,100
3,100
4,300
Online TV Revenues WW $(mills) - see note #3
422.7
614.4
872.8
US Online Video Viewers Who view Online video Ads (in millions & % of total online video viewers) see note #4
88 / 77%
110 / 81%
130 / 84%
145 / 86%
154 / 88%
165 / 90%
US Online Video Viewers as a percent of Internet Users - see note #5
62.8
72.0
80.0
84.2
85.4
86.6
1,704.2 3,313.5 5,793.3
Notes #1: Includes non-adult content of full length feature films that are bought or rented online. Source: Emarketer August 2007 #2: eMarketer benchmarks its US online advertising spending projections against the Interactive Advertising Bureau (IAB)/PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC) data for which the last full year measured was 2006, includes in-page and streaming video. Source: Emarketer June 2007 #3: Online TV = advertising supported, professionally produced and distributed mass market video via broadband. Source: iSuppli Corporation Press Release #4: Ages 3+, online video viewer defined as an individual who downloads or streams video (content or advertising) at least once a month, including in-page and streaming video. Source: Emarketer August 2007 #5: Ages 3+, online video viewer defined as an individual who downloads or streams video (content or advertising) at least once a month. Source: Emarketer August 2007
erf Attitudes of US Online Video Viewers toward Online Video advertisements, April - May 2007 (% of respondents) * * * * *
56% prefer online video ads to be related to the content. 54% convey that advertisements are a fair way for Web sites to provide free professionally produced videos. 52% prefer watching online ads in exchange for not paying to see favorite online videos. 44% say that online video ads are a convenient way to get information about products & services. 32% would watch an online video ad because it is just like watching ads on TV.
Source: OPA (Online Publishers Assocation) and OTX, “Frames of Reference: Online Video Advertising, Content and Consumer Behavior”, June 6, 2007. PAGE 3
Let’s go to the video (continued)
As with traditional commercial units, the length of online video ads has become a key factor in determining how best to use the format. Hinted during the upfront negotiations, NBC Universal recently announced that that it would not accept online video ads longer than 15 seconds, at least to go along with short-form content but it would continue to allow 30-second spots during full-length TV shows. Relative to watching advertising before a free online video, the investment banking firm, Piper Jaffray, surveyed US adult Internet users this question and the responses split nearly equally into three groups: the 30% who are not willing, the 31% who said it depends on the content and the 39% (combined) who are willing (with 25% only willing depending on the length of the ad). That being said, in the same survey, 79% of Internet users said they are not willing to pay, even for long-form, professionally produced content such as TV shows or movies. The key question that still remains outstanding from this survey - - would viewers accept video ads in exchange for free content? Overall, it is believed that most Internet TV content will be free to users over the 2 years. Viewing will take place mainly on PCs and handheld devices as early adopters have already networked their Internet TV to their main TV screens. After this brief assimilation period, it is predicted that it will be about another 3-4 years before the technology is widely accepted as a conventional system for delivering content to the living room, both commercial and non-commercial. Within this transition period which is coincidentally in line with the Digital TV conversion by 2009, the opportunity will be substantial for whoever finds the solution of making that video connection, as more & more marketers will couple or address their ads with the respective videos returned, as is currently done in text searches. Notably, as Google improves its video-search function and video sites it did not use to detect (i.e., ABC.com's Flash player), content is becoming even more relevant. comScore has reported that U.S. Internet users initiated nearly 7 billion video streams per month, with the average streamer consuming about 2 videos each day. These stats reflect that more than 106.5 million people, or 60% of all U.S. Internet users are in play. Though an interested viewer could search again (and again) and continually refine keywords until the final drill-down search results help locate what is wanted in the end, the total time it currently takes is still in question, and illustrates the immaturity of the video-search market. To-date, no one has really cracked the code yet on how to sift through these the vast Net of videos and it is also still unclear how video search engines intend to profit from video search and differentiate itself from the $7 billion text-search industry. With the development of conventional web search engines, the size of the Internet has become more manageable for the average user. Internet search engines evolved the way we relate to The Net and its use has certainly become a important tool in reaching consumers; as traditional communication vehicles are also adopting the use of the WWW for its distribution capabilities as well as for its Web 2.0 facilities. That being said, the increasing digital video availability and digital video downloaded & shared on the web are “new” factors that are pushing the Net onto another cyber-plateau of even more content access and an even bigger knowledgebase potential. As a result, effective search of videos has become a significant issue as it is anticipated to, once again, dramatically evolve the way we all relate to The Net. Watch this space for further developments, including advanced functionality. PAGE 4
Week To Week 7 BY 2006/2007 # 46
Highlights of the Week by Network
July 30 - August 5, 2007
Week #46 (also Summer week - #10 of 14) of the 2006/2007 Broadcast season - - FOX continues holding its long running reign with Adults 18-49 (2.2/7) & Adults 18-34 (2.2/8), and shared the first place title in Adults 25-54 this week with CBS, as both scored a 2.3/7 for that key demo. CBS also continues to lead again in Total Viewers, with 6.48 million total viewers for this period. Filling in the ranks in Adults 18-49: CBS took second with 1.8/6; NBC came in third with 1.7/6; and ABC finished fourth with 1.4/5. When it comes to adults 18-34, Univision refuses to be left behind, coming in third (1.4/5) just after NBC(which took second with 1.5/5), but before ABC & CBS, which tied for fourth with a 1.2/4, each. FOX, was second in Total Viewers, again, while NBC finished third in both Total Viewers and Adults 25-54, and ABC finished a network fourth for all these demos. FOX: The network kept Adults 18-49 almost all to itself as it again claimed 8 of the top 11 posts for that key adult demo. The hot as Hell's Kitchen - 9 PM (A 18-49: 4.0/11; 8.59 mill. vwrs.), was the number one show in Adults 18-49, ninth in Total Viewers, and third in Persons 12-34 (3.4/11). The show with the hot numbers, So You Think You Can Dance Thursday (A 18-49: 3.5/11; 9.56 mill. vwrs.), finished second in Adults 18-49, third in Total Viewers, and fifth in Persons 12-34, with 3.0/11. SUTYCD - Wednesday night episode (A 18-49: 3.1/10; 8.35 mill. vwrs.), however, finished a little lower in the ranks, tying for fifth in Adults 18-49 and taking tenth place in Total Viewers. 3 animated episodes of Family Guy fared well: The 9:30 PM (R; A 18-49: 3.2/09; 6.54 mill. vwrs.) episode tied for third in Adults 18-49 and was #1 in Persons 12-34 (3.8/12); The 9 PM (R; A 18-49: 3.1/09; 6.29 mill. vwrs.) airing tied for fifth in Adults 18-49 and finished second among Persons 12-34 (3.6/12); Family Guy - 8:30 PM (R; A 18-49: 2.9/09; 5.75 mill. vwrs.) tied for ninth in Adults 18-49 and also came in fourth for Persons 12-34 (3.3/11). Finally, Don't Forget the Lyrics - Wednesday (A 18-49: 3.0/08; 7.81 mill. vwrs.) and DFTL - Thursday (A 18-49: 2.9/10; 7.73 mill. vwrs.) finished eighth & ninth, respectively, for Adults 18-49. CBS: Big Brother 8 - Sunday (A 18-49: 2.8/09; 7.52 mill. vwrs.) & BB8 - Tuesday (A 18-49: 2.8/08; 7.12 mill. vwrs.) were part of a four-way tie for twelfth, and BB8 - Thursday night (A 18-49: 2.7/10; 7.09 mill. vwrs.) came in at #16, for Adults 18-49. Two and a Half Men (R; A 18-49: 2.8/08; 9.23 mill. vwrs.) was one of the other tie for twelfth in Adults 18-49 and the show also finished fourth in Total Viewers. CSI (R; A 18-49: 2.5/08; 9.05 mill. vwrs.) tied for #17 in Adults 18-49 and came in sixth for Total Viewers. Sibling crime-sighting network shows, CSI: Miami (R; A 18-49: 2.4/07; 8.82 mill. vwrs.) & Without a Trace (R; A 18-49: 9.12 mill. vwrs.), tied each other for #19 in Adults 18-49 and came in fifth & eighth, respectively, for Total Viewers. NBC: Singing Bee - Tuesday (A 18-49: 3.2/09; 9.80 mill. vwrs.) made a bee-line for third (in a tie) in Adults 18-49, and the show sang its way to second for Total Viewers; and benefitted from its strong lead out timeslot of America's Got Talent - Tuesday (A 18-49: 3.1/10; 10.76 mill. vwrs.), which tied for fifth in Adults 18-49 and showed off its talent line-up round with Total Viewers by being the #1 show for the demo for the week. Other Summer reality show, Last Comic Standing (A 18-49: 2.9/08; 6.79 mill. vwrs.) tied for ninth, as Dateline Wednesday (A 18-49: 2.8/08; 7.23 mill. vwrs.) tied for twelfth, in Adults 18-49. ABC: Just for Laughs - 8:30 PM (A 18-49: 2.5/09; 7.36 mill. vwrs.) was again the only program from the House of Mouse’s line-up that made a top list, tying for #17 among the primary Adults 18-49 demo. Ad-Supported Cable Networks: USA held on to its first place post among Adults 18-49, with a 0.85 rating. Filling in the top five cable nets: TBS finished second with 0.68; TNT came in third with 0.66; FX took fourth with 0.62; and Discovery came in fifth with 0.58. PAGE 5
Week To Week BY 2006/2007 # 46
Leading National Networks & Programs Source: Nielsen Media Research
July 30 - August 5, 2007
Top 10 Network TV Programs by Adults 18 - 49 Ratings 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 8. 9. 9. 9.
FOX/Hell's Kitchen - 9 PM = 4.0/11 FOX/So You Think You Can Dance - Thursday = 3.5/11 FOX/Family Guy (R) - 9:30 PM = 3.2/09 NBC/Singing Bee - Tuesday = 3.2/09 NBC/America's Got Talent - Tuesday = 3.1/10 FOX/So You Think You Can Dance - Wednesday = 3.1/10 FOX/Family Guy (R) - 9 PM = 3.1/09 FOX/Don't Forget the Lyrics - Wednesday = 3.0/08 FOX/Don't Forget the Lyrics - Thursday = 2.9/10 FOX/Family Guy (R) - 8:30 PM = 2.9/09 NBC/Last Comic Standing = 2.9/08
Top 10 Network TV Programs by Total Viewers 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
NBC/America's Got Talent - Tuesday = 10.76 million NBC/Singing Bee - Tuesday = 9.80 million FOX/So You Think You Can Dance - Thursday = 9.56 million CBS/Two and a Half Men (R) = 9.23 million CBS/Without a Trace (R) = 9.12 million CBS/CSI (R) = 9.05 million CBS/60 Minutes (R) = 8.88 million CBS/CSI: Miami (R) = 8.82 million FOX/Hell's Kitchen - 9 PM = 8.59 million FOX/So You Think You Can Dance - Wednesday = 8.35 million
Top 5 Cable TV Networks by Adults 18-49 Rtgs // total viewers (in millions) 1. 2. 3. 3. 5.
USA: 0.85 // 2.58 TBS: 0.68 // 1.70 TNT: 0.66 // 2.37 FX: 0.62 // 1.53 Discovery: 0.58 // 1.36
TiVo's Most Recorded Shows 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10.
The Closer (1) So You Think You Can Dance (2) Entourage (3) Rescue Me (4) Monk (6) Damages (8) Hell’s Kitchen (5) Big Brother 8 (7) Big Love (9) Burn Notice (10)
Source: TiVo, week ending 8/5/2007 (Note: based on an analysis of viewing preferences of an anonymous aggregate sample of 20,000 HHs; reflects recorded and live viewing of primetime programs on the six major networks; (X) represents previous week’s rank) PAGE 6
At A Glance Marketplace
NETWORK TV: STEADY & TIGHT In spite of having to continually make-good on the under-delivery of target demo impressions, especially ABC, CBS & NBC, conditions remain tight as 3Q scatter inventory is booked pretty solid across the key dayparts. Key contributors to this competitive summer seasonality remain Auto, Fast Foods, Financial services, FMCG, Movies & DVDs, Telecommunications, and Retail - BTS. NETWORK CABLE: ACTIVE & TIGHT Negotiations for next season's schedules have been completed and commitments are undergoing strategic considerations & planning. Similar to national broadcast, the medium remains tight as 3Q scatter continues to be active from seasonal sectors looking to makegood on planned weight gaps, including (like national) Auto, Fast Foods, Financial services, HBA, Movies & DVDs, Telecommunications/Wireless, and Retail. SPOT TV: MIXED CONDITIONS BUT STILL NEGOTIABLE The move to finalize strategic plans for Iowa & New Hampshire, as well as posturing for respective political debates in the Southern markets, have become apparent; and, activity tides for the medium are changing across the US especially for most local category sectors hoping to lock in schedules sooner than later. RADIO: MIXED CONDITIONS & NEGOTIABLE Though, like local TV, markets which have been targeted by politicos have become tighter compared to other major DMAs, overall conditions for the medium are mixed across the U.S. and inventory is remain available for negotiation and last minute scheduling. MAGAZINES: MIXED ACTIVITY Publication issues are all about the traditional holidays as closings are coming in towards November monthlies and early September weeklies. With the season of gift giving nearing, category sectors (and their gift cards) getting more active include Fashion & Luxury goods, Consumer electronics, Computers & Software, Telecommunications & Wireless, FMCGs, Retail, and HBA.
Primetime Scorecard Source: Nielsen Media Research - Prime Averages Live + SD Note: Live + SD = viewing estimates include same day(3A-3A) DVR playback; * Strict Prime Daypart (Mon-Sat 8p-11p, Sun 7p-11p); ** Data from year ago are based on finals; *** Data are preliminary from July 23 - August 5; ^ Averages based on measurement periods prior to 12/26/05 are based on pre-TSV (Live) data only. Averages crossing this date will include a combination of pre-TSV (Live) and time shifted data; Includes regulars, specials, and breakouts; Excludes only paid political programming and programs with less than 5 minute duration; As of August 28 2006, there are an estimated 111.4 million television households in the USA. A single national household ratings point represents 1% or 1,114,000 households.
Weekly Average Current Season 07/30/07 - 08/05/07 (Week 46) Network ABC CBS NBC FOX CW Univision Total
Viewers * 4.29 (-18%) 6.48 (-13%) 5.34 (-22%) 5.56 (Even) 1.89 (n/a) 2.82 (-14%) 26.38 (- 7%)
Adults 18-49 1.4/5 (-21%) 1.8/6 (-20%) 1.7/6 (-23%) 2.2/7 (- 1%) 0.7/2 (n/a) 1.2/4 (-15%) 9.0/30 (- 9%)
Adults 25-54 1.6/5 (-21%) 2.3/7 (-20%) 2.0/6 (-26%) 2.3/7 (- 1%) 0.7/2 (n/a) 1.2/3 (-14%) 10.0/30 (-11%)
Adults 18-34 1.2/4 (-17%) 1.2/4 (-23%) 1.5/5 (-17%) 2.2/8 (- 4%) 0.7/2 (n/a) 1.4/5 (-15%) 8.1/29 (- 6%)
STD Average Current Season 09/18/06 - 08/05/07 (Weeks 1-46) Network ABC CBS NBC FOX CW Univision Total
Viewers * 8.56 (-10%) 10.94 (- 4%) 7.92 (-11%) 9.21 (+ 1%) 2.84 (n/a) 3.55 (- 1%) 43.02 (+ 1%)
Adults 18-49 Adults 25-54 Adults 18-34 2.4/8 (-13%) 3.0/8 (-14%) 3.4/9 (-15%) 2.2/7 (- 7%) 3.2/9 (- 7%) 4.0/10 (- 7%) 2.2/7 (- 8%) 2.7/8 (-10%) 3.1/8 (-13%) 3.3/11 (- 7%) 3.6/10 (- 4%) 3.8/10 (- 3%) 1.3/4 (n/a) 1.1/3 (n/a) 1.1/3 (n/a) 1.7/5 (- 2%) 1.5/4 (- 1%) 1.5/4 (+ 3%) 13.0/42 (+ 2%) 15.1/43 (Even) 16.9/44 (- 2%) PAGE 7
At A Glance Comparing Media Use
Cable TV: Programs
Broadcast TV: Programs Week of July 23 - July 29, 2007 (Rating point equals 1.1 mill. homes) Program Title (Network) 1). CSI (CBS) 2). America's Got Talent (NBC) 3). 60 Minutes (CBS) 5). Shark (CBS/Thursday) 5). Two and a Half Men (CBS) 6). Singing Bee (NBC) 9). CSI: NY (CBS) 9). NCIS (CBS) 9). So You…Dance (FOX/Thurs.) 10). CSI: Miami (CBS)
Week of July 23 - July 29, 2007
Rating
(Rating point equals 1.1 mill. homes)
Ratings
Program Title (Network)
6.4 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.4
1). The Closer (TNT) 2). Saving Grace (TNT) 3). NASCAR: Nextel/Indianapolis (ESPN) 4). SpongeBob the Movie (Nick) 6). SpongeBob…(Nick/Sat., 10:30 AM) 6). Monk (USA) 7). SpongeBob…(Nick/three episodes) 10). WWE Raw (USA/Mon., 10 PM) 10). Hannah Montana (DISN/Sun., 8 PM) 10). SpongeBob… (Nick/Sun., 10:30 AM)
Source: Nielsen Media Research
Source: Nielsen Media Research
Magazines
Movie Box Office
Publication
Advertising pages, August 2007 Publication Titles Worth/Personal Finance 1). Robb Report 2). Money 3). Town & Country 4). SmartMoney 5). Kiplinger's Personal Finance Shelter 1). Dwell 2). Southern Living 3). Country Living 4). Country Home 5). Architectural Digest Source: PIB
Ad Pages (% Chg vs. YAG) 82.0 (+16.3) 76.4 (- 3.4) 53.4 (-13.4) 52.2 (+ 3.0) 29.9 (+ 7.8) 137.7 (+ 4.1) 115.4 (+ 0.8) 78.0 (-13.8) 71.6 (-12.3) 71.1 (-15.4)
Ratings 4.5 4.2 4.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9
Weekend estimates, in $ millions Title (Weeks out) 1). Bourne Ultimatum (1) 2). The Simpsons Movie (2) 3). Underdog (1) 4). I Now…Chuck & Larry (3) 6). Hairspray (3) 6). Harry Potter…Phoenix (4) 7). No Reservations (2) 8). Transformers (5) 9). Hot Rod (1) 10). Bratz (1)
Gross $ (Total $ Out) 70.2 (70.2) 25.6 (128.5) 12.0 (12.0) 10.6 (91.7) 9.3 (79.0) 9.3 (260.8) 6.6 (24.2) 6.0 (296.3) 5.0 (5.0) 4.3 (4.3)
Source: Baseline Research
Contact Questions or comments? Please contact Edith Wong at (+ 1 212) 474 - 0135 MediaImpressions, a publication of Global Solutions Mediaedge:cia Global 825 Seventh Avenue New York, N.Y. 10019 A GroupM Company
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