Transcript
Shipping Intelligence Weekly Issue No. 948 Clar ClarkS kSea ea Index Index $14, $14,36 361 1 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5
$,000/day
26-Nov-2010
ISSN: 1358-8028
The Atlantic Market This Week …… Capesize:
Weaker
Panamax: Firmer
Handy:
Firm
4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 c r g c r g c r g c r g c r g c r g e p u e p u e p u e p u e p u e p u A A A A A A D A D A D A D A D A D A
Highlights VLCC Market Spot rates in WAF remained firm despite eastern ballasters………….………… bal lasters………….…………p.2 p.2 Suezmax Market Average Suezmax earnings firmed by 26% w-o-w on the back of increased cargo volumes…….....………..……..p.2 Aframax Market Average Aframax spot earnings softened by 25% w-o-w……………………….p.2 Products Market Average clean “Handy” spot earnings firmed by 38% w-o-w…….…...….…p.3 Capesize Market Rates in the Atlantic fell despite a rather active week, whilst the Pacific market was sluggish for most of the week…..p.4 Panamax Market Whilst rates in the Atlantic improved wo-w, those in the Pacific declined...…p.4 Handymax Market Earnings rose w-o-w, with the strongest gains made in the Pacific basin……...p.5 S & P Market There have been several interesting sales in the Panamax sector………………..p.i Newbuilding It is increasingly apparent that mediumterm demand sentiment from owners is softening………… …………….......p.10 Demolition The waiting continues to see whether the promise of Bangladesh’s reopening will deliver………………………...…….p.11
Selection of ports covered by the various market sectors in this report
The Pacific Market This Week …… Capesize:
Weaker
Panamax: Softer
Handy:
Firm
Crude Tanker Spot Market Crude Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day)
Crude Tanker Highlights VLCCs: The MEG market softened considerably this week. The total number of fixtures for the month is now up to 43, though many more will be required to halt the falling rates. Despite ballasters from the Gulf, West Africa VLCC rates remain steady around WS 70. Suezmaxes: Cargoes flooded into the W AF market yesterday, so owners were unwilling to offer their tonnage out today, preferring to hold off until Monday in case US charterers want to add their cargoes. It looks like the expected pre-Thanksgiving spike may yet end up as a post-Thanksgiving spike. Aframaxes : All guns were blazing in the North Sea/Baltic on Friday. Extremely cold Baltic weather has led to speculation that ice class restrictions could be imposed as early as 10-15th December for Primorsk which has caused some ice class owners to re-evaluate re-evaluate the worth worth of their tonnage. However rates for voyages UKC have softened. •
100 90
VLCC Suezmax
80
Aframax
70
•
60 50 40 30
•
20 10
Nov Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10
VLCC Single Voyage..... 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
280, 280,00 000t 0t Gulf ulf - Eur Europ opee 280, 280,00 000t 0t Gulf Gulf - US Gulf Gulf * 265, 265,00 000t 0t Gulf ulf - Japa Japan n* 265, 265,00 000t 0t Gulf Gulf - S.K S.Kor orea ea * 270, 270,00 000t 0t Gulf ulf - Sing ing 280, 280,00 000t 0t Gulf ulf - Re Red S Seea 260, 260,00 000t 0t WAF - East ast * 260, 260,00 000t 0t WAF - US Gul Gulff * 280, 80,000t Med - UKC 260, 260,00 000t 0t WAF WAF - WC Indi India^ a^ VLCC Ave. Earnings Earnings *
WS 2010 Nov 19 Nov 26 42.5 42.5 70.0 70.0 70.0 80.0 70.0 77.5 87.5 3.50
42.5 42.5 62.5 62.5 62.5 72.5 67.5 70.0 80.0 3.50
Average earnings $ per day 2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
50 50 73 73 74 80 72 75 85 3.63
74,040 71,874 105,036 102,002 108,338 118,415 82,951 100,691 128,474 87,201 92,511
19,797 19,115 31,186 31,634 33,172 44,638 35,013 43,097 58,558 37,844 32,009
28,468 22,535 43,391 41,936 44,779 55,693 42,766 45,926 68,066 44,411 39,311
17,171 12,640 38,419 38,175 38,832 53,830 38,736 47,395 67,280 40,243 35,073
VLCC Earnings Nov 26 This Week .... 16,333 11,976 28,945 28,747 29,740 44,328 35,855 39,248 58,165 39,782 28,954
SOFTER SOFTER WEAKER WEAKER WEAKER WEAKER SOFTER WEAKER WEAKER STEADY WEAKER
-5% -5% -25% -25% -23% -18% -7% -17% -14% -1% -17%
^ WAF - WC India route quoted in WS until 11-Aug-06; quoted as a lump-sum figure thereafter (in $ million).
Suezmax Single Voyage..... 4 4 4 4 4
130, 130,00 000t 0t 130, 130,00 000t 0t 130, 30,000t 130, 30,000t Suezmax Suezmax
Gulf Gulf - S.Ch S.Chin ina a WAF - USAC SAC * WAF - Med Med - Med * Ave. Ave. Earnin Earnings gs *
Aframax Single Voyage..... 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6
8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 8 0 ,0 0 0 t 70,0 0,000t 80,0 0,000t Aframax Aframax
Gulf - East * Med - Med * Med - USAC UKC - UKC * UKC - USAC UKC - Med Indo - Japan * Carib - US Gulf * Black ack Sea - Med * Ave. Ave. Earnin Earnings gs *
WS 2010
Average earnings $ per day
Nov 19 Nov 26
2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
100.0 97.5 100.0 105.0
99 98 99 104
65,548 65,588 76,636 87,681 76,634
24,545 25,031 27,025 31,391 28,211
27,130 25,932 28,576 35,521 30,727
26,296 25,062 27,613 32,850 28,956
95.0 107.5 110.0 120.0
WS 2010
Average earnings $ per day
Nov 19 Nov 26
2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
110.0 110.0 105.0 110.0 120.0 100.0 105.0 140.0 110.0
117 114 120 111 123 103 112 132 119
38,045 50,637 50,924 68,511 50,587 40,363 38,513 36,172 67,785 49,944
14,330 16,674 19,869 12,164 18,339 13,890 11,537 13,120 25,071 15,483
15,849 19,387 19,612 21,916 18,582 13,337 14,780 16,770 26,649 19,225
12,719 15,051 12,121 19,020 16,598 10,772 10,770 18,444 19,710 15,952
115.0 95.0 105.0 95.0 115.0 90.0 105.0 125.0 100.0
Suezmax Earnings Nov 26 This Week .... 22,987 29,676 33,564 43,073 36,375
WEAKER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER
-13% 18% 22% 31% 26%
Aframax Earnings Nov 26 This Week .... 13,892 9,258 11,772 9,520 14,229 6,464 10,612 13,904 14,913 12,017
FIRMER WEAKER!! STEADY WEAKER!! WEAKER WEAKER!! STEADY WEAKER WEAKER WEAKER
9% -38% -3% -50% -14% -40% -1% -25% -24% -25%
Note: In June 2008, all tanker earnings since start 2004 were re-evaluated on the basis of revised voyage calculations; "Earnings" are timecharter equivalents of spot freight rates (see footnote on page 4); */# Indicates constituent routes of "Average Earnings" for each sector since start 2004.
Clarkson Research Services
age 2
26-Nov-10
Product Tanker Spot Market Product Tanker Spot Earnings ($,000's/day)
Product Tanker Highlights
45 40
•
After a busy week which saw a lot of activity, rates have not climbed as much as perhaps could have been expected. However, with tonnage lists continuing to tighten, spot rates may move further upwards next week. Dirty Products Again, not much cargo was seen in the Cont “Handy” market this week. Rates dropped off slightly towards the end of the week due to the lack of action. Conversely, lots of cargo flooded out of the Black Sea and into the Med. “Handy” rates there peaked at WS 220 mid-week, but had eased back down to WS 210 by the end of the week. MedUKC rates firmed to WS 145, meaning that earnings increased 25% w-o-w. There was an increase in activity for Panamaxes in the Med this week, but the Cont has been quiet. Rates accordingly softened. The tonnage list cleared towards the end of the week, and rates could rise next week if the tighter tonnage list places sufficient pressure on spot rates.
Dirty Clean - MR
35
Clean - Handy
•
30 25 20 15 10 5
Nov Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10
Clean Product Single Voyage... 8 75,000t Gulf - Japan 9 55,000t Gulf - Japan 13 35,000t Gulf - Japan * 13 35,000t Gulf - E.Africa * 13 37,000t UKC - USAC * 13 38,000t Caribs - USAC * 13 30,000t Sing - Japan * 14 30,000t Med - USAC # 14 30,000t Med - UKC # 14 30,000t Med - Med 14 30,000t Black Sea - Med 14 30,000t Baltic - UKC # 14 30,000t UKC - UKC Clean 'MR' Ave. Earnings * Clean 'Hdy' Ave. Earnings #
Clean Products
WS 2010
Average earnings $ per day
Nov 19 Nov 26
2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
122.5 135.0 150.0 290.0 150.0 135.0 170.0 170.0 180.0 170.0 180.0 135.0 135.0
122 133 145 265 163 140 140 200 181 171 177 171 168
41,305 34,854 22,968 31,578 24,669 23,650 13,386 22,865 20,713 36,510 29,075 20,687
16,526 13,608 5,883 15,495 8,539 6,170 1,957 9,720 9,429 8,840 11,741 7,063 4,661 7,651 8,737
14,766 10,973 5,396 8,834 10,305 7,114 2,450 12,413 11,574 19,499 17,320 14,798 15,709 7,656 12,928
13,838 10,430 5,428 10,628 7,675 5,909 5,553 7,418 10,227 17,845 16,457 6,861 6,567 7,039 8,169
130.0 135.0 160.0 310.0 170.0 140.0 190.0 200.0 185.0 175.0 180.0 160.0 160.0
23,250 21,422
Clean Earnings Nov 26 This Week .... 15,820 10,059 6,612 11,906 10,466 6,537 8,107 11,248 10,880 19,053 16,457 11,648 12,617 8,725 11,258
FIRMER SOFTER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRM.... FIRM.... STEADY FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER
14% -4% 22% 12% 36% 11% 46% 52% 6% 7% 0% 70% 92% 24% 38%
See footnote on page 2. § Note: 45kt dirty products Med-UKC is now calculated using a 47,000 dwt "MR" vessel
Dirty Product Single Voyage... 12 55,000t Med - US Gulf * 12 55,000t UKC - US Gulf * 12 50,000t Caribs - USAC * 13 45,000t Med - UKC § Dirty Ave. Earnings *
VLCC Spot Market Activity... Fixtures:
Gulf-West Gulf-East/Ja an Gulf-Red Sea Others Total Number of Fixtures Vessels due to arrive in Gulf ~ VLCC's Spot in Gulf ~ No. 000 Dwt
WS 2010
Average earnings $ per day
Nov 19 Nov 26
2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
125.0 125.0 125.0 132.5
141 141 142 151
36,955 40,028 33,552
12,775 14,085 11,354 14,335 12,738
14,047 16,160 13,432 14,859 14,546
8,400 10,994 8,887 9,990 9,427
122.5 122.5 115.0 145.0
36,845
2008
2009
24 56 0 27 107 71 4 1,009
19 57 0 30 106 80 9 2,459
Number Jun '10 19 60 0 26 105 64 9 2,601
Jul '10 26 88 0 31 145 111 5 1,436
Aug '10 26 60 0 32 118 97 11 3,096
7,754 10,190 6,295 12,485 8,080
SOFTER SOFTER WEAKER!! FIRMER WEAKER
-8% -7% -29% 25% -14%
VLCC Spot Market Last This Week ...
Monthly Fixture Record Average No.
Dirty Earnings Nov 26 This Week ....
Sep '10 15 59 0 32 106 92 8 2,212
Oct '10 27 77 0 41 145 116 19 5,596
4 Wks 18 71 0 28 117 101 8 2,261
DOWN BY... -33% DOWN BY... -8% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! DOWN BY... -32% DOWN BY... -19% DOWN BY... -13% DOWN BY... -58% DOWN BY... -60%
~ As at the beginning of the month for historical data; for the next 4 weeks (vessels due) or this week (vessels spot) for current week's data.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 3
26-Nov-10
Large Bulk Carrier Market Bulkcarrier Highlights
Bulkcarrier Spot Earnings ($,000's/Day)
Capesize: The Capesize market was buoyant during the first half of the week, with most activity focused in the Atlantic basin. However, as ballasters began to sail towards Brazil, rates softened, which precipitated a standoff between owners and charterers. The Pacific market was sluggish throughout the week, and rates fell accordingly. Panamax: Whereas rates on most Atlantic routes improved markedly compared to last week, the opposite was generally the case in the Pacific. It looks as though the market could remain lopsided next week, with further gains expected in the Atlantic and rates remaining flat in the Pacific. Handymax: After a steady tightening of tonnage in the Atlantic, fronthaul earnings leapt on Thursday. Meanwhile, there was far greater activity in the Pacific than last week but a large amount of prompt tonnage meant that earnings rose only moderately. •
90 80
Capesize Panamax Handymax
70 60
•
50 40 30 20
•
10
Nov Jan Apr Jun Aug Oct Dec Feb Apr Jun Aug Oct '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10
Capesize Single Voyage....... 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 16 17
Iron Ore Trades 165,000 Tubarao/Rotterdam 165,000 Tubarao/Japan 18m 165,000 Tub/Beilun.Baoshan 165,000 Dampier/Rotterdam 165,000 Dampier/Japan 18m 165,000 Dampier/Beilun.Bao. 165,000 Saldanha/Beilun.Bao. Coal Trades 150,000 Bolivar/Rotterdam 150,000 Hay Pt./Rotterdam 150,000 R.Bay/Rotterdam 150,000 Indonesia/Rotterdam 150,000 Hay Pt./Japan 17m Ave. Earnings, 1999/00-built Ave. Earnings, 1990/91-built
Panamax Single Voyage....... Coal Trades 70,000 H.Rds/ARA 70,000 USGulf/ARA 70,000 Bolivar/ARA 70,000 Newcastle/Cont 70,000 Richards B./Rott 70,000 Roberts Bank/Japan 70,000 Newcastle/Japan 55,000 Roberts Bank/Rott 70,000 Indonesia/Rotterdam Grain Trade (Supramax) 19 49,000 USGulf/Japan(HSS)* 18 Ave. Earnings, 1997/98-built 19/20 Ave. Earnings, 1980's-built
18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18
$ Per Tonne Nov 19 Nov 26
Average Earnings $ Per Day 2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
Capesize Market Nov 26 This Week ...
14.25 26.45 27.30 16.25 9.75 10.50 19.00
13.75 23.55 24.25 14.90 9.00 9.70 17.05
13.84 25.82 26.72 14.97 9.75 10.54 17.65
105,639 137,961 139,512 68,162 105,720 98,800 95,219
43,914 58,913 58,087 22,090 40,887 39,105 37,660
33,674 49,196 49,587 16,217 30,845 30,876 32,165
34,456 49,981 50,379 19,059 29,227 30,460 35,674
31,896 SOFTER 41,211 WEAKER 41,588 WEAKER 14,582 WEAKER 24,282 WEAKER 25,398 WEAKER 29,139 WEAKER
-7.4% -17.5% -17.4% -23.5% -16.9% -16.6% -18.3%
14.90 19.00 13.00 13.95 12.80
14.75 19.00 12.35 13.10 11.90
14.72 18.01 12.42 13.31 12.06
104,891 61,906 63,533 56,850 92,802 97,699 83,264
45,070 19,570 18,715 18,963 34,489 39,064 34,147
36,315 11,999 11,847 12,283 27,625 31,454 28,377
36,153 13,063 12,632 1 4,105 29,637 33,253 29,897
35,275 STEADY 12,916 STEADY 10,395 WEAKER 10,860 WEAKER 25,255 WEAKER 28,974 WEAKER 26,427 WEAKER
-2.4% -1.1% -17.7% -23.0% -14.8% -12.9% -11.6%
$ Per Tonne Nov 19 Nov 26
Average Earnings $ Per Day 2010
2008
2009
2010
Nov 19
Panamax Market Nov 26 This Week ...
13.25 17.10 15.80 25.50 15.90 18.00 17.75 26.50 19.75
16.25 20.00 18.50 24.75 15.00 1 7.75 17.50 25.75 18.85
17.95 23.03 21.18 29.20 18.13 2 0.90 21.25 29.51 21.76
53,367 46,258 61,982 34,945 42,507 45,221 40,455 34,605 34,100
21,072 18,524 19,926 8,922 10,635 17,035 16,555 9,201 8,280
26,422 23,511 25,332 15,780 14,124 24,689 24,864 15,137 14,699
14,439 13,049 12,832 11,075 9,886 18,465 17,426 10,953 11,001
21,560 FIRMER 17,773 FIRMER 18,261 FIRMER 10,146 WEAKER 7,980 WEAKER 17,907 SOFTER 16,871 SOFTER 9,988 WEAKER 9,515 WEAKER
49.3% 36.2% 42.3% -8.4% -19.3% -3.0% -3.2% -8.8% -13.5%
53.00
54.00
65.17
56,840 43,323 39,673
26,989 15,089 13,176
35,964 20,855 18,409
25,336 13,617 11,309
26,251 FIRM....... 15,017 FIRMER 12,742 FIRMER
3.6% 10.3% 12.7%
*This route replaces the Panamax grain routes, which are no longer reported and are not included in average earnings from start 2007 onwards. "Average Earnings" are timecharter equivalents of spot freight rates, excluding waiting time off-hire etc., for standard routes/ships, for which see the "Sources & Methods" document on our website, "SIN 2005" (www.clarksons.net). Standard Ships are indicated by the figures on the left, e.g. Modern Capesize = Standard Ship no.13.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 4
26-Nov-10
Tripcharter Market, Freight Futures, & Bunkers Panamax Tripcharter...* Cont/Far East TransPacific R/V Far East/Cont TransAtlantic R/V Average Panamax Earnings Clarkson P'max Trip Index
Average Earnings $ Per Day 2008
2009
2010
63,005 43,048 35,673 53,779 48,876 494
29,096 16,774 9,305 22,036 19,298 195
36,786 24,074 15,414 27,042 25,829 261
Oct 29 27,500 19,000 12,000 18,000 19,125 193
Nov 05
Nov 12
26,500 19,500 12,250 17,000 18,813 190
Nov 19
27,500 20,000 12,500 17,000 19,250 195
25,000 17,000 12,000 14,500 17,125 173
Panamax Market Nov 26 This Week .... 28,000 16,800 10,000 22,000 19,200 194
FIRMER STEADY WEAKER FIRMER FIRMER FIRMER
12.0% -1.2% -16.7% 51.7% 12.1% 12.1%
*Rates are for a Panamax vessel based on the Baltic standard BPI vessel.
Handymax Tripcharter…* Cont/Far East TransPacific R/V Far East/Cont TransAtlantic R/V Average Earnings 52,000 dwt Average Earnings 45,000 dwt Clarkson Handymax Index
Average Earnings $ Per Day 2008
2009
2010
51,075 35,904 31,317 46,214 41,113 36,245 497
27,178 13,588 7,663 19,383 16,914 14,741 204
31,969 20,143 13,190 24,354 22,414 19,673 271
Oct 29 25,000 17,250 12,000 16,750 17,750 15,938 215
Nov 05 22,750 16,250 11,500 16,500 16,750 14,938 202
Nov 12
Nov 19
21,500 14,750 10,500 16,500 15,813 14,063 191
20,500 11,750 9,500 15,000 14,188 12,563 171
Handymax Market Nov 26 This Week .... 22,500 12,500 9,500 15,500 15,000 13,188 181
FIRMER FIRM....... STEADY FIRM....... FIRM....... FIRM....... FIRM.......
9.8% 6.4% 0.0% 3.3% 5.7% 5.0% 5.7%
* 52,000 dwt "Supramax" unless stated
Baltic Freight Indices 28-Oct 29-Oct 01-Nov 02-Nov 03-Nov 04-Nov 05-Nov 08-Nov 09-Nov 10-Nov 11-Nov 12-Nov 15-Nov 16-Nov 17-Nov 18-Nov 19-Nov 22-Nov 23-Nov 24-Nov 25-Nov Max Value Min Value Av Value
Baltic Panamax Index Trends 12,000
BPI
BCI
BSI
BDI
2465 2410 2371 2313 2288 2287 2304 2322 2361 2437 2432 2365 2294 2216 2122 2063 2038 2061 2112 2194 2290 2465 2038 2274
4272 4262 4231 4165 4060 4011 3994 3984 3938 3882 3695 3612 3530 3490 3492 3496 3526 3585 3593 3539 3381 4272 3381 3797
1768 1750 1730 1705 1680 1655 1628 1597 1580 1552 1532 1516 1495 1474 1457 1431 1389 1369 1370 1392 1443 1768 1369 1548
2707 10,000 2678 2648 8,000 2600 2542 6,000 2510 2495 4,000 2482 2467 2,000 2454 Week No. 2366 0 2313 1 3 6 8 11 1 3 16 18 21 23 26 28 31 2261 2219 FFA Indications at close …..…… 2188 Basis Closing Mid Price 2164 Index 2155 BPI 1A TransAtlantic R/V, $/day 19,176 2179 BPI 2A Skaw-Gib/Far East, $/da 26,875 2199 BPI 3A TransPacific R/V, $/da 17,168 2213 BCI 7 15.16 Bolivar/Rott $/ton 2200 BCI 4 12.80 R.Ba /Rott $/ton 2707 Ca e 32,607 TC Avera e $/da 2155 P'max TC Avera e $/da 18,408 2383 S'max TC Avera e $/da 15,088
Regional Bunker Markets ..... Rotterdam Genoa Philadelphia Houston Cristobal Los Angeles Japan Singapore Fujairah
MDO Avg.
To date
2009 490 576 525 618 564 557 517 -
2010 658 689 674 739 714 709 655 -
2008 2009 2010
3 3 36 3 8 40 43 45 48 50
25-Nov Nov-10 0 25,625 17,250 15.75 12.75 36,750 18,050 15,750
380cst
Nov
Nov
Avg.
To date
19
26
718 750 743 804 785 745 724 -
707 750 758 789 771 753 705 -
2009 353 373 368 360 381 375 409 371 372
2010 447 468 464 446 471 464 515 461 465
Nov
Nov
19
26
463 473 471 460 493 490 535 480 478
469 484 488 461 488 500 538 484 492
Q1-11 0 28,000 17,750 13.38 11.50 25,250 18,750 16,875
Cal-11 0 0 0 13.13 11.50 24,375 18,400 16,250
Bunkers This Week .... (380cst) HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER LOWER HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER HIGHER
1.3% 2.3% 3.5% 0.2% -0.9% 2.0% 0.6% 0.8% 3.0%
Bunkers are in $/t
Clarkson Research Services
Page 5
26-Nov-10
Gas & Chemical Markets LPG Market….
Average 2008
2009
2010 Sep
Oct
Voyage Rates ($/mt) 44/46K mt Gulf/Jap* 41.91 21.72 34.31 T/C Equivalent, $/day 22,916 5,991 17,096 82,000m³ modern 78,000m³ modern 22,230 5,836 16,480 12 mths T/C, $/day 82,000m³ modern 22,945 16,505 20,507 78,000m³ modern 22,003 16,246 20,343 29,858 20,621 20,959 59,000m³ modern 57,000m³ 29,251 19,903 19,480 28,347 20,457 20,055 35,000m³ 24,000m³ 27,314 18,721 15,124 22,000m³ Semi-Ref + 30,004 24,035 20,877 23,207 18,465 15,781 15,000m³ Semi-Ref 8,250m³ Ethylene 21,143 17,934 15,946 7,233 3,500m³ Pressure (East) 7,957 6,557 3,200m³ Semi-Ref 10,088 8,134 8,219 * 44K mt for 78K vessel/46K mt for 82K vessel.
Average 2008
2009
Voyage Rates ($/mt) 31.66 20.61 10,000 Gulf/WCIndia 15,000 Gulf/MPFE 63.23 37.06 63.23 37.06 15,000 Gulf/Med 45.61 35.32 5,000 Rott/Houston 10,000 Rott/Houston 40.40 28.75 97.88 101.90 1,000 ~ Rott/MPFE 2,000 ~ Rott/MPFE 88.92 93.95 83.99 88.94 3,000 Rott/MPFE 5,000 Rott/MPFE 80.87 80.64 2,000 ~ Houston/Rott 66.95 56.19 61.89 52.10 3,000 Houston/Rott 5,000 Houston/Rott 54.73 44.98 2,000 ~ Houston/MPFE 85.32 85.85 5,000 Houston/MPFE 67.85 60.35 10,000 Houston/MPFE 64.05 56.82 Easychems except for: ~ Stainless Steel.
Clarkson Research Services
1,000 900
37.70
48.50
FIRMER..
29%
19,858 19,135
31,562 FIRMER.. 30,247 FIRMER..
59% 58%
700
21,239 21,074 21,863 19,957 20,022 15,124 20,548 15,551 16,143 7,233 8,219
23,014 22,850 23,014 20,548 20,220 15,124 20,384 15,452 16,439 7,233 8,548
FIRMER.. FIRMER.. FIRM... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... FIRM...
8% 8% 5% 3% 1% 0% -1% -1% 2% 0% 4%
500
2010 Sep 26.25 49.25 66.00 32.00 27.00 95.00 83.00 78.00 72.50 54.50 51.00 43.75 76.00 46.00 44.00
Chemical freight rates ex-Europe have been relatively stable this week, with no change on the westbound transatlantic trade, maintaining the steady rates which have persisted since late October. • On the trade to the Far East, however, rates have been marked up by a dollar for the smaller easy chems and stainless tanks rates. Demand in Europe •
LPG Charter Rates, $'000/month
800
600
Oct 25.40 47.40 66.60 32.20 27.40 95.00 83.00 78.00 73.00 55.00 52.00 44.00 83.20 53.20 51.20
Chem Market 26 Nov Trends… 23.00 WEAKER. -9% 42.00 WEAKER. -11% 62.00 SOFTER... -7% 32.00 STEADY... -1% 27.00 STEADY... -1% 96.00 STEADY... 1% 4% 86.00 FIRM... 80.00 STEADY... 3% 74.00 STEADY... 1% 5% 58.00 FIRM... 6% 55.00 FIRM... 5% 46.00 FIRM... 95.00 FIRMER.. 14% 70.00 FIRMER.. 32% 65.00 FIRMER.. 27% MPFE= Main Port Far East
78,000m³, 1 Yr t/c
300 200 100 0
8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 r y n g p t y l v n b r v c n r g t u c a p p a u u e a J u c o o a e e a A A O O J J J M F N M A S D M A N
West. Some owners have already addressed the potential imbalance, scheduling some of their ships to ballast back to the AG. Some of the recent positive developments have, however, been counter-balanced by the emergence of trader relets into the market for December. This perhaps explains the signs of weakness in the Baltic Index, which has fallen slightly.
Chemical Freight Rates, $/mt 105
Rott/Far E. Houston/Far E.
95 85 75 65 55 45 basis 5,000mt Easychems 35
8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 r y l v n b r y n g p t v c n r g t u c a p p a u u e a J u c o o a e e a A A O O J J J N F M A S D M M A N
has prevented the kind of strong firming seen in Houston-Asia rates as a result of strong Asian polymer prices. However, there has been some upward pressure on rates to justify higher benchmarks. However, eastbound rates ex• Middle East Gulf have softened weekon-week. The hangover from Eid in terms of undersupply of cargoes has Page 6
78000m³ TCE, Gulf - Japan
400
of last week were reported finalised and there will be a similar number carried over this weekend. In the West, there has been a parallel slowdown in activity giving rise to some concern by shipowners that the number of open ships in the region is set to rise, in particular because of the recent attractive product prices which have tempted Middle East shipments to the
Spot cargo availability east of Suez has slowed a little this week - with a resultant slowdown in the level of spot freight enquiry. This has been affected to some extent by a typical pause while the market awaits Saudi Aramco’s CP announcement, which for December is expected early next week. • Some spot fixtures which had been fixed on subjects prior to the end •
Chemicals Markets….
LPG Market 26 Nov Trends…
seemingly persisted whilst prompt tonnage has built up over the holidays. Although owners are trying to sound optimistic, the available space makes it hard to see anything other than a softer outlook for the short term.
26-Nov-10
Liner & Offshore Markets Liner Market Rates ($,000's/day)
Liner Market News Maersk Line is reported to be in talks to sign a deal for a series of containership vessels, rumoured to be of around 18,000 TEU, which would be the biggest boxship vessels in the world upon completion. It is reported that a LOI could be signed before the end of the year for the potential order. Negotiations are said to be taking place around the design of the vessels, which could be the first to be powered by LNG in a bid to make them more environmentally friendly. If such an order goes ahead, the ships are likely be due for delivery in 2012-14 and may come with an option for further vessels. •
25 1,700 teu FCC 725 teu FCC 1,000 teu FCC 17,000 dwt MPP
20
15
10
5
Israeli container line Zim has reported a third quarter profit of US$37 million, compared to a loss of US$208 million in the same period last year. Better market conditions in general and internal restructuring are said to have contributed to the turnaround. Revenue in Q3 climbed 77% y-o-y, to US$1bn. •
6 0 v o N
7 0 b e F
7 0 y a M
7 0 g u A
7 0 v o N
8 0 b e F
8 0 y a M
8 0 g u A
Container / MPP / Short Sea Markets Container Vessels ($/Day) Feedermax, 725 teu grd. Handy, 1,000 teu grd. Handy, 1,700 teu grd. Sub-P'max, 2,000 teu g'less Sub-P'max, 2,750 teu g'less Panamax, 3,500 teu g'less MPP Tonnage ($/Day) 17,000 dwt, grd. 1 yr. t/c (liner) 9,000 dwt, 1 yr. t/c (liner) European Short Sea 3,000dwt($/t) ECUK/ARAG - N.Spain French Bay - ECUK Lower Baltic - ARAG UK/ARAG - W.Med W.Med - UK/ARAG
8 0 v o N
9 0 b e F
9 0 y a M
9 0 g u A
9 0 v o N
0 1 b e F
0 1 y a M
0 1 g u A
0 1 v o N
Average
Liner Markets .... Nov Trends…*
2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
9,817 12,350 17,079 18,392 22,646 26,583
9,054 1 2,500 1 6,613 19,696 26,292 29,958
7,563 1 0,346 1 4,108 16,313 21,958 26,125
3,558 4,075 4,754 5,054 5,638 6,575
5,200 7,300 8,500 10,000 14,000 18,250
5,300 7,350 8,750 10,100 14,000 19,000
5,300 7,500 8,250 9,800 13,000 16,500
5,300 7,500 8,250 9,800 13,000 16,500
FIRM....... FIRM....... STEADY... FIRMER... STEADY... STEADY...
6% 5% 3% 11% 1% 0%
12,083 10,192
14,792 10,708
17,792 8,763
9,412 9,747
10,500 7,200
10,500 7,200
10,250 7,200
10,250 STEADY... 7,200 FIRM.......
2% 7%
21.64 13.03 15.97 32.19 25.86
28.61 16.07 22.53 37.00 29.69
32.67 18.05 28.80 44.85 37.08
17.43 12.57 16.32 26.75 22.94
21.13 12.81 17.13 30.63 22.88
21.50 12.81 17.81 31.44 23.31
23.30 15.00 19.30 33.80 25.05
25.75 17.50 21.50 37.00 26.75
FIRMER... FIRMER... FIRMER... FIRMER... FIRM.......
11% 17% 11% 9% 7%
*3-mnth trend for Container/MPP; current month shows latest end month data. Change since previous month for Short Sea; see www.hcshipping.co.uk for market report.
Offshore Vessel Market AHTS 7-12,000 Bhp AHTS 12,000+ Bhp PSV < 3,000 Dwt PSV > 3,000 Dwt
Average
2010
2006
2007
2008
2009
Aug
Sep
Oct
40,706 55,935 22,170 26,119
34,122 51,559 21,601 26,074
24,066 51,533 15,535 19,855
11,645 19,242 6,095 6,929
20,354 20,252 16,021 19,631
14,465 17,813 15,042 18,408
7,271 10,443 7,972 9,444
Offshore Market … 26 Nov This Month 5,936 8,538 5,750 6,223
WEAKER... WEAKER... WEAKER!!... WEAKER!!...
-18% -18% -28% -34%
Note: Rates are based on the averages of reported fixtures in the North Sea in £/day, supplied by One Offshore UK Ltd.
Offshore Fleet & Orderbook….
No. Vessels, end 2007
2008
2009
Oct-10
Fleet:* Anchor Handling Tug/Supply PSV/Supply Crew/Workboat Other Types
All Offshore Vessels
All Offshore Vessels
AHTS Freight Rates
3-week moving average
120
2,357 1,821 886 2,758 7,822
2,514 1,944 940 2,848 8,246
2,815 2,071 988 2,927 8,801
2,990 2,125 1,005 2,975 9,095
AHTS >12,000Bhp
90 60 30
Orderbook: Anchor Handling Tug/Supply PSV/Supply Crew/Workboat Other Types
150
£,000/day
712 335 33 237 1306
699 309 35 242 1277
483 202 24 183 890
320 193 7 144 664
0 6 7 7 0 - 0 - 0 c r n a e u D M J
7 7 8 8 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 p c r n a e e u S D M J
8 8 9 9 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 p c r n a e e u S D M J
9 9 0 0 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 p c r n a e e u S D M J
0 1 p e S
The Offshore Fleet published above has been expanded as of 1st September 2010 to include all vessels >100 GT. This adds 2,300 smaller vessels to CRS's fleet coverage.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 7
26-Nov-10
Secondhand Prices Oil Tanker Prices… 310,000 dwt d/h Resale 310,000 dwt d/h * 5 yrs 300,000 dwt d/h 10 yrs 265,000 dwt d/h' 15 yrs 160,000 dwt d/h Resale 160,000 dwt d/h # 5 yrs 150,000 dwt d/h 10 yrs 105,000 dwt d/h Resale 105,000 dwt d/h 5 yrs 105,000 dwt d/h ^ 10 yrs 15 yrs 95,000 dwt d/h 73,000 dwt d/h ~ 5 yrs 70,000 dwt d/h § 10 yrs 65,000 dwt s/h 20 yrs Resale 51,000 dwt d/h 5 yrs 47,000 dwt d/h 45,000 dwt d/h 10 yrs 45,000 dwt d/h 15 yrs 37,000 dwt d/h 5 yrs 35,000 dwt d/h 10 yrs 5-y-o Tanker Index 12 month Change
End Year, $m 2007 2008" 2009 155.0 134.0 135.0 104.0 110.0 74.0 102.0 92.0 74.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 60.5 50.5 12.0 59.0 52.0 42.0 28.0 44.5 36.0 266 7%
98.0 79.0 59.0
93.0 70.0 78.0 56.5 63.0 43.0 64.0 53.0 54.0 41.5 43.0 24.0 28.0 13.0 49.0 35.0 39.0 22.0 7.0 4.7 47.0 32.0 37.0 23.0 27.0 15.5 17.0 10.0 30.5 19.5 23.0 14.0 197 133 -26% -32%
Three Month Nov Trend… 115.0 86.0 60.0 39.0 71.0 60.0 44.0 59.0 44.0 29.0 15.0 38.0 28.0 5.3 36.0 26.0 18.5 11.0 23.0 15.5 148 12%
STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... SOFTER... SOFTER... STEADY... STEADY... SOFTER... SOFTER... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... SOFTER... SOFTER... SOFTER... SOFTER... STEADY...
Asset Play in Focus Long Term Price Trends
0% -2% -3% -3% -3% -4% 1% 1% -3% -4% -2% -2% 0% -2% -3% -4% -6% -5% -5% -3%
0%
Index, Start 2000 = 100
550 500 450
Bulkers
400
Tankers
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 1 0 ' t c O
2 0 ' t c O
3 0 ' t c O
4 0 ' t c O
170,000 dwt 5 yrs 170,000 dwt * 10 yrs 15 yrs 150,000 dwt 150,000 dwt 20 yrs 5 yrs 76,000 dwt ^ 72,000 dwt 10 yrs 69,000 dwt 15 yrs 69,000 dwt # 20 yrs 56,000 dwt ~ 3 yrs 5 yrs 56,000 dwt ~ 45-48,000 dwt § 10 yrs 42-45,000 dwt 15 yrs 42-45,000 dwt 20 yrs 28-30,000 dwt 5 yrs 10 yrs 28-30,000 dwt 28-30,000 dwt 15 yrs 27,000 dwt 20 yrs 5-y-o Bulker Index 12 month Change
2007 2008" 2009
Three Month Nov Trend…
150.0 45.0 105.0 31.0 88.0 22.0 59.0 13.0 88.5 26.0 72.0 20.0 61.0 12.5 44.5 9.0 75.0 26.5 75.0 24.5 60.0 18.0 46.5 13.0 36.0 7.5 44.0 20.5 40.0 16.0 33.0 10.0 26.0 5.0 423 151 77% -64%
55.5 41.0 23.0 15.0 39.5 30.0 23.5 15.0 36.0 33.0 26.0 21.0 13.0 25.0 21.5 14.0 10.0 198 15%
End Year, $m
55.0 44.0 27.5 16.0 36.0 27.5 21.5 11.0 30.0 27.0 21.5 17.0 11.0 22.0 17.0 12.5 8.0 175 16%
STEADY... SOFTER... SOFTER... SOFTER... STEADY... SOFTER... STEADY... FIRMER... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... STEADY... SOFTER... SOFTER... SOFTER... SOFTER... STEADY...
-2% -3% -4% -6% 2% -5% 2% 13% 2% 2% 2% -2% -3% -4% -4% -6% -3% -1%
Before Oct-08: *150k dwt. Before Jan-10: ^73k dwt #60k dwt ~52k dwt §42-45k dwt.
Container & Ro-Ro Prices 3,500 teu 10 yrs 10 yrs 1,700 teu 725 teu 10 yrs 10-y-o Container Index Ro-Ro 2,500 lm* 10 yrs Ro-Ro 1,250 lm* 10 yrs
2007 2008" 2009
Three Month Nov Trend …
49.5 26.5 14.0 136.8 25.0 15.5
36.5 16.3 8.5 86.2 22.5 10.5
End Year, $m 29.0 12.5 9.8 81.0 24.0 14.5
15.5 8.5 5.5 49.2 22.5 10.8
FIRM.... STEADY... FIRM.... FIRM.... STEADY...
STEADY... *Ro-Ro prices in euros, historical data converted using historical exchange rates
Clarkson Index … ALL VESSELS
End Year, $m 2007 2008" 2009 225
156
142
8% 1% 4% 5% 0% 0%
Three Month Nov Trend … 145
6 0 ' t c O
7 0 ' t c O
8 0 ' t c O
9 0 ' t c O
30%
% Year on Year 5-year-old Tanker Price Index Percentage Change Year-On-Year
20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40% -50% -60% 7 8 0 ' 0 ' t n c a O J
8 0 ' r p A
8 0 ' l u J
8 9 0 ' 0 ' t n c a O J
9 0 ' r p A
9 0 ' l u J
9 0 0 ' 1 ' t n c a O J
0 1 ' r p A
Page 8
0 1 ' l u J
0 1 ' t c O
Short Term Bulk Trends 100%
% Year on Year 5-year-old Bulker Price Index Percentage Change Year-On-Year
80% 60% 40% 20% 0% -20% -40% -60% -80% 7 8 0 ' 0 ' t n c a O J
8 0 ' r p A
8 0 ' l u J
8 9 0 ' 0 ' t n c a O J
9 0 ' r p A
9 0 ' l u J
9 0 0 ' 1 ' t n c a O J
0 1 ' r p A
STEADY... -2% "End 2008 values subject to uncertainty. 3-month trend is the average of the last three months over the average of the previous three months.
Clarkson Research Services
0 1 ' t c O
Short Term Tanker Trends
Before Feb-10: *300k dwt '250k dwt #150k dwt ^95-97k dwt s/h ~70k dwt §65k dwt.
Bulkcarrier Prices...
5 0 ' t c O
0 1 ' l u J
0 1 ' t c O
26-Nov-10
Sale & Purchase Market 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0
$m.
Sales Volumes & Values
Tankers: No.
220 200 180
Value
160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20
Volume
0 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 l l l l l v r v r v r v r v r u u u u u a a a a a o J o J o J o J o J N M N M N M N M N M
Tanker Sales* .... Type:
VLCC Suezmax Aframax Handy/Pmax Total No. Sales Total DWT (,000) Total Value ($ m)
Type:
Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Total No. Sales Total DWT (,000) Total Value ($ m)
Y-t-d
Oct
2009
2010
2010
26 14 23 83 146 14,558 3,391
48 20 33 146 247 26,317 6,553
6 3 16 25 2,796 556
Y-t-d
Oct
2009
2010
2010
48 129 153 245 575 31,578 8,594
48 100 120 176 444 26,796 9,665
4 14 7 22 47 2,741 986
Y-t-d
Oct
Other Sales ....
2009
2010
2010
Total No. Sales Total dwt (,000s) Total Value ($ m)
494 5,211 3,116
493 7,653 4,920
30 553 300
Y-t-d
Oct
2009
2010
2010
219 28 14 214 33 30 1,215 51,346 15,101 294
183 52 17 132 24 32 1,184 60,766 21,139 348
21 8 1 10 3 2 102 6,090 1,842 302
Total Sales ..... Buyers: Greece Norway Germany China P.R. UK South Korea Total No. Sales Total Dwt (,000) Total Value ($m.) Average $/Dwt
SLS Shipbuilding has sold an MR tanker (49,700 dwt, non-IMO pump room design), on the basis of a charter free delivery from the yard in January 2011. The buyers are rumoured to be Egyptian Tanker Company, who are purchasing the vessel for a price in the region of $38.5m. If this is correct then it represents a very firm price, especially as there are comparable units currently available at more competitive price levels.
Dry Cargo:
Revised: Suezmax = 120-200k dwt, Aframax = 80-120k dwt
Bulker Sales* ....
Clients of Euronav continued their ongoing fleet renewal programme by selling the “PACIFIC LAGOON” (305,839 dwt, built 1999 Mitsubishi H.I.), to Grand China for $54.75m on the basis of a charter free delivery in Q1 2011. This is the second vessel Grand China has purchased from these owners. In February, they acquired the ex-“NAMUR” (298,552 dwt, built 2000 Hitachi Zosen), for $58.5m. Euronav have been fairly active in the disposal of their older VL tonnage this year. In August, they sold the ex- “TI CREATION” (298,324 dwt, built 1998 Daewoo), for $55.5m to clients of Andros Maritime.
The biggest talking point of this week has been within the PostPanamax/Kamsarmax sector where there have been several interesting sales. Firstly, Italian owners Setsea S.P.A. have sold the “BENEDETTA D'AMATO” (92,500 dwt, built 2010 Jiangsu New Yangzijiang) for $46m to clients of Mercator with timecharter attached (to commence on delivery) at $21,400/day for a minimum of 83 and a maximum of 86 months. Elsewhere, clients of Clemko are rumoured to have sold the first of their four Kamsarmaxes at Hyundai Mipo, for delivery in September 2011, for $42m to Greek owners, although we understand there are some outstanding subjects. In terms of 1990s built tonnage, clients of Oceanfreight have sold both of the Italian built Panamaxes, “TRENTON” and “AUSTIN” (75,264 dwt, built 1995 Fincantieri) for $22m each. In the Handymax sector, Japanese owners have sold the “SILKY OCEAN” (45,665 dwt, built 1995 Tsuneishi Zosen, C4x25T) to Greek interests for a firm $21.6m. The other sale within this sector is that of the Taiwanese controlled “NEW ETERNITY” (45,741 dwt, built 1994 Hashihama Zosen, C4x25T) which has been sold for slightly in excess of $20m. The two 1990s built Handysize vessels sold this week have both come from Japanese owners. Firstly, Taiwanese buyers have purchased the “GLOBAL DIAMOND” (24,834 dwt, built 1997 Kanasashi K.K., C4x30T) for $13.5m with 4+1 years timecharter attached at $10,000/day. Elsewhere, the “SANTA CHRISTINA” (25,378 dwt, built 1996 Imabari S.B., C4x30T) has been sold for $13m. With regards to over-aged tonnage, clients of HOSCO have sold the Capesize “HEBEI WISDOM” (182,212 dwt, built 1986 Hitachi Zosen) for $14m and, lastly, the “VOYAGER” (33,347 dwt, built 1985 Kanda Zosensho, C4x25T) has been sold for $8.5m with 2 year timecharter attached at $13,500/day.
Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments (weekly) (Based on max. 5-year old vessels, as published by As of the 22nd November 2010. VLCC (305,000 DWT): Aframax (105,000 DWT): MR Product tanker (45,000 DWT): Capesize (172,000 DWT): Panamax (74,000 DWT): Super Handy (52,000 DWT): Note: H. Clarkson brokers did not contribute to the above Assessment rates.
the Baltic Exchange) $87.778m $44.387m $26.406m $55.175m $38.920m $32.536m Baltic Sale & Purchase
ALL DATA AND INFORMATION IN THIS REPORT ARE AS REPORTED UP TO NOON ON THE DATE OF PUBLICATION
* Includes vessels over 10,000 dwt only. Sales of bulk vessels under 10,000 dwt and of non-bulk vessels are included in "Other Sales".
Clarkson Research Services
i
26-Nov-10
Recent Ship Sales by Vessel Type Vessel Type
Vessel name
Dwt/Unit Blt.
Yard
Date
Price $m. region
Buyers
Tanker
D/Hull
N/B RESALE HULL 496
Tanker
D/Hull
Pacific Lagoon
305,839
1999 Mitsubishi H.I.
22-Nov
Tanker
S/Hull
Gemini Star*
301,862
1995 Odense Lindo
15-Nov
Tanker
S/Hull
Suhail Star*
301,862
1994 Odense Lindo
15-Nov
Tanker
D/Hull
Forth Bridge
5,800
1992 Cochrane S.B.
08-Nov
2
TankChem IMO II
Southern Orchis Golden Emerald
8,336 6,436
1999 Asakawa S.B. 2008 Zhenjiang Sopo
23-Nov 23-Nov
8.5 6
South Korean interests Greek interests
TankChem IMO II/III
Golden Kaori
9,224
1998 Higaki Zosen
09-Nov
5.5
Undisclosed interests
TankChem IMO II
Trans Sund*
4,794
1991 Aarhus Flydedok
08-Nov
11
TankChem IMO II
Trans Vik*
4,750
1991 Aarhus Flydedok
08-Nov
Offshore
AHTS
Temasek Sepinggan
1,200
2002 Pan United
19-Nov
10
Offshore
AHTS
Redfish 1
8,000
2010 Yuexin S.B.
15-Nov
22
Offshore Gas C'rier
Support 83,000 cu.m
Noordhoek Singapore Thetis Glory*
1977 Schpsw. De Waal 2008 Daewoo
10-Nov 26-Nov
cash+50%avance
Clients of Avance Gas
Gas C'rier
83,000 cu.m
Venus Glory*
54,474
2008 Daewoo
26-Nov
cash+50%avance
Clients of Avance Gas
Gas C'rier
83,000 cu.m
Iris Glory*
54,707
2008 Daewoo
26-Nov
cash+50%avance
Clients of Avance Gas
Gas C'rier
4,005 cu.m
Kinna
3,231
1989 Hanjin H.I.
22-Nov
Gas C'rier
3,200 cu.m
Oriental Sky
2,924
1995 Shitanoe Zosen
22-Nov
Gas C'rier
82,513 cu.m
Joyama
49,999
1986 Mitsubishi H.I.
11-Nov
10
Clients of Naftomar
Gas C'rier
75,203 cu.m
Noto Gloria
49,412
1992 Kawasaki S.B.
10-Nov
15
Clients of Siam Gas
Gas C'rier
3,500 cu.m
Lady Barbara
Gas C'rier
78,476 cu.m
Sunway
Dry MPP
430 teu.
CIC Belem*
6,273
Dry MPP
430 teu.
Artne*
6,262
Dry MPP
366 teu.
Sirocco
5,196
1998 Jiangzhou S/Y
12-Nov
Dry Genl
2x35t cr.
Lehmann Forester
8,620
2008 Fujian New Shenghai
25-Nov
Dry Genl
Gearless
Adriane
1,307
1970 Bayerische
23-Nov
Dry Genl
Gearless
Nortic
1,200
1969 Frederikshavn
23-Nov
Dry Genl
2x5t dr.
Katrine Krog
1,170
1969 Frederikshavn
23-Nov
Dry Genl
1x60t cr.
Sunroad Tsuwano
9,640
2005 Miyoshi Zosen
17-Nov
Dry Genl
2x15t cr.
Yasemin
6,830
1996 Sasebo H.I.
15-Nov
Dry Genl
2x20t dr.
Amsterdam
6,726
1985 Halla Eng.
08-Nov
Container
2,800 teu.
Positano
Container
450 teu.
Xin Hai Yuan
8,616
Container Container
1,129 teu. 1,576 teu.
Oriental Bright Harmony
Container
1,728 teu.
Nordstar
Container
566 teu.
Vsico Promote
Container
927 teu.
Siam 1
15,628
Container
3,456 teu.
Clifton Bridge
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Silky Ocean
Bulk
4x25t cr.
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Benedetta D'Amato
92,500
2010 Jiangsu New YZJ
26-Nov 83-86mthTC@$21k
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Austin*
75,264
1995 Fincantieri
24-Nov
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Trenton*
75,265
1995 Fincantieri
Bulk
4x25t cr.
Voyager
33,347
1985 Kanda Zosensho
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Hebei Wisdom
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
N/B RESALE HULL
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Global Diamond
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Songa Peak
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Chane Navigator
54,347
Bulk
4x35t cr.
N/B RESALE HULL ZH1019*
57,000
Bulk
3x14t cr.
N/B RESALE HULL ZH1020*
Bulk
4x30t cr.
ID Harmony
Bulk
5x25t cr
Agios Minas
29,002
1981 Hakodate Dock
16-Nov
4.1
Chinese interests
Bulk
5x25t cr.
Feroi
37,092
1983 Shin Kurushima
16-Nov
6.3
Far Eastern interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Energy Trade
77,679
1998 Mitsui SB
15-Nov
24
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
Blue Annapurna
2010 Daehan S.B.
15-Nov
63-64
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Orient Saori
30,835
1997 Minami Nippon
10-Nov
19.5
Undisclosed interests
Bulk
Str. Ore.
Golden Shadow
73,500
1997 Sumitomo H.I.
09-Nov
26.7
Clients of Nordsul
Bulk
4x30t cr.
Nord Brave
53,529
2007 Iwagi Zosen
09-Nov
36.5-37
Bulk
Str. Hvy.
PB Eagle
97,119
1992 Imabari S.B.
09-Nov
18.5
TankChem IMO II/III
49,700
2,078 54,789
2010 SLS Shipbuilding
25-Nov
38.5 54.75
for conversion for conversion
at auction
Clients of Egyptian Tanker Co
Clients of Grand China
27
Clients of OGX Petroleum & Gas
27
Clients of OGX Petroleum & Gas
Undisclosed interests
Clients of Gazprom # Clients of Gazprom
undisclosed
ss/dd overdue
Clients of PT Bahtera Nusantara
Malaysian interests Clients of Euroflow Designs
3.2
Clients of Lucky Marine
5.2
Korean interests
3,983
1990 Kyokuyo S.Y.
10-Nov
3.3
Undisclosed interests
48,980
1991 Mitsubishi H.I.
05-Nov
14
Clients of Petredec
1992 Kyokuyo S.Y.
19-Nov
6
1992 Kyokuyo S.Y.
19-Nov
38,000
Clients of Allcargo Logistics
# Clients of Allcargo Logistics 2.7
at auction undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed undisclosed
EUR3
Undisclosed interests Clients of Great Option Investment
Clients of Island Flag Shipping
Undisclosed interests Carribbean based interests Undisclosed interests Undisclosed interests Greek interests
2011 Nordic Yards Wismar
24-Nov
39.9
1984 Shin Kurushima
18-Nov
1.8
Malaysian interests
16,500 21,480
1996 Imabari S.B. 1994 Hanjin H.I.
18-Nov 16-Nov
undisclosed 7
11
Undisclosed interests South American interests
22,900
1998 Stocz. Szczecin
15-Nov
dely JAN/APR11
8,515
1999 Murakami Hide
09-Nov
high
1996 Iwagi Zosen
05-Nov
47,539
1988 Kawasaki H.I.
05-Nov
45,665
1995 Tsuneishi Zosen
26-Nov
New Eternity
45,741
1994 Hashihama Zosen
26-Nov
Santa Christina
25,378
1996 Imabari S.B.
26-Nov
dely APR/2011
14.5
Undisclosed interests
7
Clients of Sinokor
8
Far Eastern interests
8.1 21.6
slightly excess high
Clients of Hammonia Reederei
Clients of Goldenport Greek interests
20
Undisclosed interests
13
Undisclosed interests
46
Clients of Mercator
22
Undisclosed interests
24-Nov
low low
22
Undisclosed interests
24-Nov
2yrsTC@$13.5k
8.5
Greek interests
182,212
1986 Hitachi Zosen
24-Nov
14
Undisclosed interests
81,920
2011 Hyundai Mipo
22-Nov
42
Greek interests
24,834
1997 Kanasashi K.K.
22-Nov 4+1 yrsTCB@$10k
1990 NKK Corp.
18-Nov
2010 Jiangsu Qinfeng 2010 Zhejiang Zhenghe SB
57,000 23,712
151,148
180,000
13.5
Taiwanese interests
excess
20 30
Chinese interests
17-Nov
10yrsTC@$16.5k
61
Clients of Ship Finance
2010 Zhejiang Zhenghe SB
17-Nov
10yrsTC@$16.5k
1995 Kanasashi K.K.
17-Nov
18-Nov
# Clients of Ship Finance 14.5
excess
Undisclosed interests
Undisclosed interests
Greek interests
Clients of Vinalines Greek interests
* En bloc Sales. #En Bloc price shown under first ship of bloc.
Clarkson Research Services
ii
26-Nov-10
Bulk Fleet Changes Bulk Fleet Changes...
Oil Tanker Fleet 2009
(No. Vessels ,000dwt) Fleet 1st January
No.
Dwt
4,921 406,916
Changes:
Deliveries Sold For Scrap Losses Misc. Additions Misc. Removals Net Change During Year
573 130 1 41 116 367
Bulk Carrier Fleet
2010 to date No.
Dwt
2009 No.
5,288 436,002
48,054 8,363 94 1,679 12,189 29,086
415 187
38,535 11,639
16 78 166
864 12,739 15,021
2010 to date
Dwt
No.
6,976 418,010 531 246 6 104 47 336
Combo Fleet
42,505 9,986 232 10,880 1,671 41,496
Dwt
2009 No.
7,312 459,506 842 103 4 57 49 743
68,479 5,004 315 4,573 1,573 66,160
2010 to date
Dwt
81
7,847
10
722
1 2 -11 70
Fleet End Yr/ Yr to Date 5,288 436,002 5,454 451,023 7,312 459,506 8,055 525,665 Vessels over 10,000 dwt only are included in the analysis in this table. Great Lakes Only vessels are excluded.
No.
Dwt
70
7,072
5
1,599
76 130 -775
5
1,599
7,072
75
8,671
Deliveries & Other Additions.. Type
Date
Vessel Name
Flag
Year Built
Dwt
Bulk Bulk MPP/Hvy. Lift Bulk GCargo Tanker Bulk Bulk Chem & Oil Bulk Bulk Chem & Oil Chem & Oil Bulk PCC PCC
Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10
Lan Hai Fen Jin Orchard Bulker Hyundai Phoenix Yue Dian 83 BBC Magellan S.Leader Mercurius Percival Wilutama Anna Meta Orient Accord Shanxin Shanren Crystal Tiger CSAV Rio Bueno CSAV Rio Blanco
PRC SG. AT. H.K. AT. PA. CY. CY. H.K. LI. MA. PRC PRC PA. LI. LI.
2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010 2010
57,000 32,500 10,128 87,000 6,264 4,800 34,538 176,000 26,198 54,619 33,500 6,575 6,575 180,000 11,315 11,369
Bulk Open Hatch Chem & Oil Chem & Oil Chem & Oil RoPax
Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10
Sea Master T hor Champion Topaz Violet Malou Theresa Asakaze 21
BM. T H. TU. MA. MA. JA.
1985 1982 2009 2008 2008 2009
23,743 25,150 2,655 7,080 7,842 1,233
Owner
Shipyard & Yard No.
Guangdong Lanhai Lauritzen Bulkers Harren & Partner Guangdong Yuedian Briese-Schiffahrts Nissho Odyssey Frangoulis S/Mngt. Intership Nav. Co. Berlian Laju Tanker Blumenthal, Johann Interorient Nav. Co. CSIC-IMC Shipping CSIC-IMC Shipping Mitsui O.S.K. Lines F. Laeisz F. Laeisz
Xiamen S.B. Jiangmen Nanyang Kouan S.B. Hudong Zhonghua Dalian Fishing Miyoshi Zosen
$m 28.50
Uniteam Marine Ltd. Thore sen Thai Agen. Kaman Denizcilik Pet Chemmariner Shpg. Tank. Herning A/S Kita Nippon Kaiun
Misc.Add.Prev.Demo. Misc. Add.Prev. Demo. Misc.Add.Prev.Dely Misc.Add.Prev.Dely Misc.Add.Prev.Dely Misc.Add.Prev.Excld.
117 $m 45.00
New Times S.B. Shin Kurushima Mitsui SB Weihai Samjin
H1550A 2008-120 405 H4056 0117637 5710 1790 1017
Chongqing Chuandong
HT0106
SPP Shipbuilding
Contracted Price
$m 90.00
$m 35.00
HT0105 Imabari S.B. 8091 Lujiashi Zhoushan 2076 Lujiashi Zhoushan 2075
Chongqing Chuandong
Scrapping & Other Removals.. Type MPP MPP
Date Vessel Name
Flag
Year Built
Dwt
PCC Ro-Ro GC Liner L.P.G. Chem & Oil Bulk Chem & Oil Tanker Harbour Tug Gravel/Stone Reefer GCargo Bulk
Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10
Mikue Eastern Sea Southern Arrow Astro Venus Fu Han Kou Bolan Berge Racine Bow Panther Maha Vidya Ustica Ocean Power Mermaid Warrior Pieter Storm Bay Asrar-a-Mostafa Our River
CS. MA. CB. PA. PA. PK. NIS SG. IN. PA. SG. AU. NE. SG. BA. CS.
1980 1984 1984 1982 1986 1980 1985 1986 1977 1986 1983 1969 1965 1983 1978 1983
7,906 12,665 6,549 12,464 9,300 18,144 63,296 39,422 27,451 24,225 127,778
Bunkering GC Liner Bulk GCargo Bulk Bulk
Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10 Nov'10
W-O Budmo Bien Dong 02 Jianmao 9 Guang Ming Fubo Huai Hai
M.I. VN. PA. PRC PA. PRC
2006 1960 1976 1965 1974 1962
GCargo
Clarkson Research Services
Owner
Breakers
Ldt
India Bangladesh P.R.C. India P.R.C. Pakistan India India Pakistan India Bangladesh
802 11,720 7,200 75,105
Glomar Supplies Ltd Alunited Maritime Pamela Corp. Kambara Kisen NYKCOS Car Car. Pakistan Nat. Shpg. BW Gas Odfjell ASA Five Stars Shpg. Gabes Marine Tankers Ocean Tankers Pte Mermaid Marine Group Van Oord Oceanlink Management AK Ship Mngt. & Serv Holyman Ltd.
7,654 10,395 34,456 14,987 27,709 26,754
W-O Shipping Group Vinaship Jian Mao Intl. Shg. Guangdong Sun China Shpg. (Hainan) China Ocean (COSCO)
Misc.Rem Loss Loss Misc.Rem.Prev.Demol. Misc.Rem.Prev.Demol. Misc.Rem
iii
India Bangladesh Bangladesh
Price $/ldt $m.
2,458 2,014 9,508
385.0 450.0
0.78 4.28
5,635 21,978 9,689 6,861
448.0 460.0 478.0 455.0
2.52 10.11 4.63 3.12
470.0
6,384
26-Nov-10
Timecharter Fixture Record Latest Tanker Timecharter Fixtures... Reported 24-Nov 24-Nov 23-Nov 19-Nov 19-Nov 15-Nov 15-Nov 15-Nov 08-Nov 08-Nov 08-Nov 08-Nov 04-Nov 04-Nov 02-Nov 01-Nov 01-Nov 01-Nov 01-Nov 01-Nov 01-Nov 27-Oct 25-Oct 25-Oct 25-Oct 15-Oct 14-Oct 14-Oct
Charterer Vitol Repsol Stena Stena Stena Shell Shell TTMI Shell Shell Shell Shell Cosco Cosco Hanjin Shpg BP Oman Shipping Norden Emarat BP Trafigura Petrobras AET Scorpio Scorpio Scorpio BP BP
Vessel Name Futura SKS Sira Alhani Samraa Alkhaleej Alhani Ocean Lady True. United Ambassador Genmar Concord Stena Concert Stena Contest Stena Consul Yiangos Kaliope Arion Eships Falcon Pyxis Delta Formosa 14 Uacc Consensus Atlantas Saham TI Oceana Blue Topaz Hellespont Progress Hellespont Prosperity
Marcela Lady Kazdanga Eurochampion 2004
D/
Year
C C D D D D D D D
Built 2006 2002 2007 2006 2007 2002 2010 2007 2004 2004 2005 2004 2010 2010 2001 2010 2010 2005 2005 2010
D D D C C C C D C D D C C C D D
2003 2010 2006 2006 2007 2005 2007
Dwt 40,000 159,435 113,000 114,000 113,000 105,000 115,917 73,000 47,000 47,000 47,000 47,000 296,000 296,000 308,459 51,000 51,000 46,000 46,000 320,000 441,585 73,727 73,715 46,000 37,312 164,608
Spd
Cons.
16 15
74 50
15 15 15
44 49
15
16 17
14 16 15
105 145
33 67
Period 12 Mths 2 Yrs 6 Mths 6 Mths 6 Mths 12 Mths 12 Mths 12 Mths 2 Yrs 2 Yrs 2 Yrs 2 Yrs 5 Yrs 5 Yrs 12 Mths 6 Mths 27 Mths 3 Yrs 12 Mths 12 Mths 3 Mths 6 Mths 5 Yrs 2 yrs 2 yrs 6 Mths/6 Mths 2 Yrs 2 Yrs/1 Yrs
Rate
Delivery
$ per Day $ 11,000 $ 22,500 + P/S $ 22,000 + P/S $ 22,000 + P/S $ 22,000 + P/S $ 17,900 $ 18,000 $ 15,350
Date Place Nov 10 Caribs Dec 10 Nov 10
$ 10k/12k/14k/16k per 6 Mths $ 10k/12k/14k/16k per 6 Mths $ 10k/12k/14k/16k per 6 Mths $ 10k/12k/14k/16k per 6 Mths
$ 36,500 + P/S $ 36,000 + P/S $ 28,750
Nov 10
$ 14,500 $ 14,000 Sub $ 14,000 $ 32,000 $ 37,500
Nov 10 Nov 10 Nov 10
$34,000 + p/s yrs 3-5
$16,500 $16,500 $ 12,000 $ 25,000 + P/S $ 25,000
Oct 10 Oct 10 Oct 10
Latest Dry Bulk Timecharter Fixtures... Reported 25-Nov 24-Nov 24-Nov 24-Nov 24-Nov 23-Nov 22-Nov 22-Nov 22-Nov 19-Nov 19-Nov 19-Nov 19-Nov 19-Nov 18-Nov 18-Nov 17-Nov 16-Nov 15-Nov 15-Nov 11-Nov 11-Nov 11-Nov 11-Nov 11-Nov 10-Nov 10-Nov
Charterer Korean Chtrs GMI Noble Rio Tinto Oldendorff Cargill Norden Minmetal Minmetal Swiss Marine Cargill Cargill Transgrain Classic Maritime Vitol Transgrain Swiss Marine Swiss Marine TA Bulk Cargill CNR Swiss Marine Swiss Marine GMI GMI Dreyfus Sinochart
Clarkson Research Services
Vessel Name Equinox Voyager Goldeneye Georgios S F. D. Jacques Graubart Micaela Della Gatta Galini Marina Aliki Ocean Qingdao Grain Harvester Ocean Freedom Marylaki Megalohari Giant Ace Navios Star Mary Gorgias Brilliance Aeolian Glory Maple Pioneer Pollux Osprey I Nyon Libertas Ocean Lily Navios Titan Amoy Dream Golden Heiwa
Year Built
Dwt
2002 2001 2001 2007 2006 2005 2000 2005 2010 2004 2010 2010 2004 2009 2002 2008 1990 1995 2008 2007 2002 1999 2007 2006 2005 2010 2007
50,832 52,285 74,242 76,588 82,790 56,015 75,122 180,235 76,000 76,417 55,000 58,470 76,633 179,147 76,662 75,204 149,349 157,991 32,500 32,017 50,206 73,035 74,930 76,585 82,936 57,000 76,662
Spd
iv
Cons.
Period
Rate $ per Day
3-5 Months 12 Months 3 Months 3-5 Months 5-7 Months 4-6 Months 4-6 Months 59-61 Months 5 Years 3-5 Months 4-6 Months 3-5 Months 3-5 Months 3-6 Months 2 Years 3-5 Months 4-6 Months 14-16 Months 3-5 Months 3-5 Months 12 Months 18-20 Months 11-13 Months 4-6 Months 23-25 Months 3-5 Months 4-6 Months
$16,000 $17,000 $19,500 $19,750 $19,500 $15,400 $19,250 $26,500 $18,900 $20,000 $15,500 $15,250 $19,250 $30,000 $18,000 $19,750 $24,000 $24,500 $14,000 $14,000 $18,500 $20,000 $20,000 $21,500 $20,000 $20,000 $23,000
Delivery Date Place Prompt 25Nov-05Dec 27Nov-30Nov 26Nov-30Nov Prompt 03Dec-05Dec 21Nov-23Nov 01Mar-31Mar 01Jun 21Nov-23Nov 25Nov 25Nov 19Dec-25Dec 05Dec-07Dec 01Dec-01Jan Prompt 22Nov-25Nov Prompt 18Nov-21Nov 20Nov-22Nov 01Nov 01Apr 17Nov-20Nov 15Nov 23Nov-25Nov 15Nov Prompt
Dalian Toyama Cape Passero Kaohsiung Bayuquan South Korea Dalian Far East Jiangnan Taichung Japan Far East China China Far East Krishnapatnam Beilun Zhoushan Falmouth Rotterdam East Med World Wide Singapore China Jintang Algeria Bayuquan
26-Nov-10
The Timecharter Market Tanker Timecharter Market 1 Year T/C... 310,000 Dwt 150,000 Dwt 110,000 Dwt 74,000 Dwt 47-48,000 Dw 37,000 Dwt 285,000 Dwt 145,000 Dwt 97,000 Dwt
Modern Modern Modern Modern Modern Modern Early '90s* Early '90s* Early '90s*
3 Year T/C... 310,000 Dwt 150,000 Dwt 110,000 Dwt 74,000 Dwt 47-48,000 Dw 37,000 Dwt
Modern Modern Modern Modern Modern Modern
T/C Activity… ...over 1 year VLCC 200,000 + Suezmax 120-200,000 Aframax 80-120,000 Panamax 60-80,000 Handy 10-60,000 Total No. Fixtures Total in m. dwt
Average Rate $/day To Date 2007 55,548 44,452 33,144 29,317 25,904 23,269
2008 73,413 47,192 35,793 29,221 23,481 21,952 68,519 42,260 32,692
2009 39,577 30,577 20,077 19,375 15,231 13,702 35,163 27,192 17,827
2010 38,688 28,615 18,766 16,745 13,177 11,479 32,313 23,354 15,635
Average Rate $/day To Date 2007 48,385 38,577 29,625 26,913 23,288 21,317
2008 58,644 40,923 30,500 26,486 22,322 20,385
2009 37,538 29,106 20,678 19,957 15,870 13,904
2010 38,490 27,427 20,057 17,469 14,115 11,656
Total Fixtures
Nov
T/C Activity & The Freight Market
26
VLCC (early 2000s)
31,000 26,000 18,000 16,000 13,000 12,000 26,000 21,000 15,000
Nov 26 36,500 27,000 20,000 17,750 14,750 13,000
2007
2008
2009
2010
29 22 40 16 68 175
22 16 34 11 68 151
14 27 53 9 53 156
29 12 31 7 31 110
27 16 46 18 38 145
20.1
16.3
17.0
15.8
18.5
No. fixtures
$,000/day 1 Year t/c
7
120 105
Spot $/day
6
90
5
75
4
60
3
45
2
30
1
15
0
0 8 0 t c O
To Date
2006
Modern is taken to mean no more than 10 years old.
8
8 0 c e D
9 9 9 9 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 n g b r e p u u F A J A
9 0 t c O
9 0 c e D
0 0 0 0 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 n g b r e p u u F A J A
0 1 t c O
Tanker timecharter activity this week… In November there have been 21 tanker timecharter fixtures reported. Nine handy tankers have been fixed, and the second most popular vessels were Aframaxes, of which five were fixed. 145 timecharter fixtures of one year and above have been reported in 2010. •
* All tanker timecharter rates are now for Double Hulls. Data from start 2008 are available at www.clarksons.net
Bulk Carrier Timecharter Market 1 Year T/C... Capesize Panamax Supramax Handymax Handysize Capesize Capesize * Panamax
Modern Modern Modern Modern Modern "CSBC" 1980s 1980s
3 Year T/C... Capesize Panamax Supramax Handysize Capesize Panamax
Modern Modern Modern Modern "CSBC" 1980s
T/C Activity… ...over 1 year Capesize 100,000 + Panamax 60-100,000 Handymax 40-60,000 Handysize 10-40,000 Total No. Fixtures Total in m. dwt
Average Rate $/day To Date 2007 106,918 52,317 45,702 39,870 28,120 90,327 45,135 40,926
2008 111,529 55,637 45,510 38,673 29,486 89,582
2009 33,276 18,151 14,678 12,827 10,678 27,152
T/C Activity & The Freight Market
26
Capesize (Modern)
2010 33,698 25,229 21,315 18,701 15,908 26,792
30,000 20,625 17,250 15,000 13,250 23,000
44,697 10,634 15,586
14,250
Average Rate $/day To Date 2007 75,808 39,774 33,750 21,863 63,077 28,168
Nov
2008 82,260 44,356 33,788 21,837 70,053 28,837
2009 27,721 15,531 13,556 10,609 21,452 6,904
2010 29,302 19,828 17,474 14,052 22,208 10,000
Total Fixtures
16
No. fixtures
$,000/day
14
70
1 Year t/c Spot $/day
12
80
60
10
50
Nov
8
40
26
6
30
4
20
2
10
27,000 18,250 16,000 13,000 21,000 8,000
0
To Date
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
111 183 74 9 377 36.1
144 282 110 8 544 51.4
91 188 66 8 353 33.5
53 146 68 2 269 23.7
38 137 60 11 246 20.6
Tanker and bulk carrier T/C activity size ranges reflect existing CRSL ship type definitions.
0 8 0 t c O
8 0 c e D
9 0 b e F
9 0 r p A
9 9 9 9 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 c n g t u u c e J A O D
0 0 0 0 1 - 1 - 1 - 1 b r n g p u u e F A J A
0 1 t c O
Bulk carrier timecharter activity this week… Chilean company Minmetal took two bulk carriers on 5 year time charters this week. These were the Capesize “ALIKI”, and the newly-built Panamax “OCEAN QINGDAO”, which were fixed at rates of $26,500/day and $18,900/day respectively. •
Modern is taken to mean no more than 10 years old. *Vessel no longer reported due to lack of liquidity.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 9
26-Nov-10
The Shipbuilding Market What's Been Ordered... Type
S 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 17 17 17 17 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5
Date Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10 Nov-10
Bulk Bulk Ore Ore Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Container Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk Bulk
Dwt/Unit 207,000 207,000 300,000 300,000 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 11,850 1,100 41,500 3,500 41,500 3,500 41,500 3,500 41,500 3,500 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 180,000 81,200
Delivery Mar 2012 Apr 2012 2012 2013 May 2012 Aug 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 2013 2013 2013 2013 2012 2012 2013 2013 Nov 2012 Nov 2012 Dec 2012 Dec 2012 Nov 2012 Feb 2013 Oct 2012
Builder Daehan S.B. Daehan S.B. Universal S.B. Universal S.B. Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Zhejiang Yangfan Shanghai S.Y. Shanghai S.Y. Shanghai S.Y. Shanghai S.Y. Shanghai Jiangnan Shanghai Jiangnan Shanghai Jiangnan Shanghai Jiangnan Dalian Shipbuilding Dalian Shipbuilding Dalian Shipbuilding
Price $m 63.50 $m 63.50
$m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m $m
Owner/Manager* Golden Flame Shpg. Golden Flame Shpg. Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Mitsui O.S.K. Lines Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Shandong Int. Trans. Nile Dutch Africa Nile Dutch Africa Nile Dutch Africa Nile Dutch Africa China Shpg. Tramp China Shpg. Tramp China Shpg. Tramp China Shpg. Tramp Haibao Shipping Haibao Shipping Haibao Shipping
18.10 18.10 18.10 18.10 18.10 18.10 18.10 18.10 51.00 51.00 51.00 51.00 53.08 53.08 53.08 53.08
S=Status, where: 5=confirmed order, 16=unconfirmed order, 17=option. Other units are: teu for containerships, cbm for gas vessels, numbers of cars or passengers. * The Primary Reference Company, as used in the Clarkson Fleet Database i.e. the company with the main commercial responsibility for the ship.
Newbuilding Prices .... Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax 'MR' Tanker Bulk Carriers Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Gas Vessels LPG LNG Dry Cargo Container Container Clarkson Index
Year End, $m.
Three Month Trend ...
2007
2008
2009
Nov
320,000 dwt 157,000 dwt 115,000 dwt 51,000 dwt
146.0 90.0 72.5 52.5
150.0 91.0 75.0 47.5
101.0 62.5 49.0 35.0
105.5 67.0 57.0 36.5
FIRM....... WEAKER... WEAKER... FIRM.......
0.6% -0.5% -0.3% 1.2%
180,000 dwt 76,000 dwt 57,000 dwt 35,000 dwt
97.0 55.0 48.0 38.0
88.0 46.5 42.0 32.5
56.0 33.8 30.5 25.0
57.3 34.5 31.0 26.5
WEAKER... FIRM....... WEAKER... WEAKER...
-2.7% 0.2% -2.6% -3.0%
82,000m³ 160,000m³
93.0 237.0
92.0 245.0
72.0 211.5
72.8 FIRM....... 202.0 FIRM.......
3,500 teu 1,100 teu
63.0 27.5 184
60.0 25.0 177
36.0 19.0 138
49.0 FIRMER… 8.2% 21.3 FIRM....... 2.4% 142 FIRM....... 0.1%
Newbuilding Activity ....
2007
2008
2009
Oil Tankers Chemical & Spec. Tankers Combined Carriers LPG Carriers LNG Carriers Bulk Carriers Containerships General Cargo vessels Ro-Ro Vessels Refrigerated Vessels Offshore Vessels FPSO/FSU Passenger & Cruise Ships Other Misc. Vessels TOTAL CONTRACTING
323 725 6 78 25 1999 543 393 151 9 711 6 59 293 5,321
288 242
114 59
62 5 1242 215 328 97 6 350 3 27 132 2,997
16
Vessels Contracted
324 16 46 22 167 2 21 111 898
0.9% 0.6%
Shipbuilding News There were further reports of new business this week and as we approach the Christmas period, the current momentum of the market shows little sign of relenting. However, it is now increasingly apparent that mediumterm demand sentiment from owners is beginning to soften. Therefore, although shipyards do have the comfort of a forward orderbook, there remains an imperative to attract further business. •
Although we do not anticipate any significant deviation in newbuilding values in the near future, it is clear that yards remain determined to compete strongly for the right enquiry. This is likely to have the desired effect of spurring potential buyers into action and, consequently, could prolong the current momentum that exists within the market into the new year. •
Year-on-Year 2010 191 39
Trend ... FIRMER... 85% WEAKER!! -27%
36 FIRMER... 149% #DIV/0! ###### 5 857 FIRMER... 193% 112 FIRMER... 674% 78 FIRMER... 88% WEAKER!! -60% 8 #DIV/0! ###### 3% 155 FIRM....... 4 FIRMER... 121% 37 FIRMER... 95% 28 WEAKER!! -72% 1,550 FIRMER... 91%
Newbuilding Price Index 200 Index, Jan'88 = 100 190 Ten year trend in newbuilding prices
180 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 0 0 ' t c O
1 0 ' t c O
2 0 ' t c O
3 0 ' t c O
4 0 ' t c O
5 0 ' t c O
6 0 ' t c O
7 0 ' t c O
8 0 ' t c O
9 0 ' t c O
0 1 ' t c O
Newbuilding prices vary as to country of build, delivery and ship specification. Prices here are end year/latest and from Jun-08 assume a "European spec", 20/20/20/20/20% payments and "first class competitive yards" quotations, and relate to market contracts where these have taken place and to brokers' best estimates when no contracts have occurred. 3-month trend basis last 3 vs previous 3 months.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 10
26-Nov-10
The Demolition Market What's Been Scrapped... Type MPP MPP GCargo PCC Ro-Ro GC Liner L.P.G. Chem & Oil Bulk Chem & Oil Tanker Harbour Tug Gravel/Stone Reefer GCargo Bulk Bulk Chem & Oil Products Standby/Resc. Tanker Pass/Car F. MPP/Hvy. Lift
Date Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10 Nov '10
Scrap Prices...
Vessel Name
Flag CS. MA. CB. PA. PA. PK. NIS SG. IN. PA. SG. AU. NE. SG. BA. CS. PA. SC. PA. LI. PK. BR. PA.
Mikue Eastern Sea Southern Arrow Astro Venus Fu Han Kou Bolan Berge Racine Bow Panther Maha Vidya Ustica Ocean Power Mermaid Warrior Pieter Storm Bay Asrar-a-Mostafa Our River Phuc Hai Moon Sea Pearl Iman VOS Conquest Swat SNAV Sicilia Terrisha
Year End ($/ldt) 2007
2008
2009
510 470
285 270
340 330
Tankers Dry Cargo
Blt 1980 1984 1984 1982 1986 1980 1985 1986 1977 1986 1983 1969 1965 1983 1978 1983 1979 1973 1986 1974 1985 1974 1984
This Year Latest % 470 435
38% 32%
Note: The scrap prices ($/ldt) are based on Indian prices for VLCC tankers and a Handy dry bulk carrier of around 8,000 ldt.
Buyer Activity...
Year (m dwt) 2007
2008
2009
0.3 1.4 2.5 0.6 0.7 5.5
1.3 3.4 7.1 0.6 0.8 13.3
5.8 9.0 10.1 3.0 3.7 31.6
China India Bangladesh Pakistan Other TOTAL
Size & Type...
Year (m dwt) 2007
Tankers VLCC Suezmax Aframax Handy < 10,000 dwt Total Tankers Bulkcarriers Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize Total Bulkers Combos Gas Vessels Other Dry TOTAL
2008
2009
This Year 2010 % 2.3 7.7 4.3 4.0 4.0 22.3
-56% -8% -54% 43% 18% -24%
This Year 2010 %
Dwt 7,906 12,665 6,549 12,464 9,300 18,144 63,296 39,422 27,451 24,225 127,778 802 11,720 7,200 75,105 33,688 3,309 6,237 600 86,593 5,341 17,330
Ldt Owner 2,458 Glomar Supplies Ltd Alunited Maritime 2,014 Pamela Corp. 9,508 Kambara Kisen NYKCOS Car Car. 5,635 Pakistan Nat. Shpg. 21,978 BW Gas 9,689 Odfjell ASA 6,861 Five Stars Shpg. Gabes Marine Tankers Ocean Tankers Pte Mermaid Marine Group Van Oord 6,384 Oceanlink Management AK Ship Mngt. & Serv Holyman Ltd. 7,733 Phuc Hai Shipping Al-Dawood Shpg. Ltd. 3,163 Laskaridis Shpg Vroon Offshore 16,372 Pakistan Nat. Shpg. 11,510 Alisnav 7,160 Pan Seas Co. L.L.C.
Buyer India Old sale P.R.C. India Old sale Pakistan India India Pakistan India Bangladesh
As is Fujairah Bangladesh Bangladesh India Bangladesh Pakistan
$/ldt
$ m.
385.0 450.0
0.78 4.28
448.0 460.0 478.0 455.0
2.52 10.11 4.63 3.12
470.0
435.0
3.36
448.0
1.42
468.0
7.66
Pakistan India India
Scrapping Price Trends 550 US$ per ldt 500 450
Tankers - India Tankers - B.Desh Handy Bulk - B.Desh
400 350 300 250 200 150 Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov Jan Mar May Jul Sep Nov '08 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '09 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10 '10
Demolition Market News and Gossip There is little new or more certain to report from the Bangladeshi market. Although a few ships were beached earlier in the month, it will not be until there is a proven track record of ships being granted licence to beach under the new regime that it can be said that the problems are over. • This week, a couple of major Norwegian owners have been disposing of specialised tonnage to Indian yards. The “BERGE RACINE” (81,600 cu.m., built 1985 Chantiers de la Ciotat) was sold by BW Gas at $460/ldt, or just over $10 million. Meanwhile, the Indians will also be scrapping the “BOW PANTHER” (39,422 dwt, built 1986 Hanjin H.I.) which was sold by Odfjell for $478/ldt. The firm price is reflective of a small stainless steel content. The vessel is expected to deliver to one of the recycling yards at Alang with amongst the best green credentials. • The Pakistani National Shipping Company has been relatively active recently, including one sale this week. At least one more vessel is likely to follow the others to domestic breakers imminently. •
0.9 2.4 0.2 3.5
0.8 0.3 1.1 2.0 0.2 4.3
2.4 0.8 1.5 3.6 0.2 8.5
0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8 5.5
2.2 1.1 0.5 1.8 5.6 0.2 0.6 2.6 13.3
1.4 2.3 1.3 5.4 10.4 0.7 0.7 11.3 31.6
3.2 1.9 1.4 5.2 0.3 11.9
47% 145% -1% 56% 78% 52%
2.3 73% 0.5 -75% 0.4 -70% 1.8 -64% 5.0 -48% - -100% 0.6 -6% 4.8 -54% 22.3 -24%
* The % change is based on annualised figures for this year against last year.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 11
26-Nov-10
Economic Indicators GDP Growth & Forecasts* 2007 2008 2009 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 2010 (f) 2011 (f)
Germ 2.7% 1.0% -4.7% 2.1% 4.1% 3.9%
U.K. 2.7% -0.1% -4.9% -0.2% 1.7% 2.8%
USA 1.9% 0.0% -2.6% 3.7% 3.0% 3.1%
apan Euro Area 2.4% 2.9% -1.2% 0.5% -5.2% -4.1% 4.6% 0.6% 2.4% 1.9% 4.4% 1.9%
3.3% 2.0%
1.7% 1.8%
2.6% 2.3%
2.9% 1.3%
World 5.3% 2.8% -0.6% 0.0%
0.0% 0.0%
1.6% 1.3%
4.8% 4.2%
Europe 2.4% -2.2% -14.4% 7.9% 7.9% 0.0%
OECD 2.3% -2.1% -14.0% 8.9% 8.5% 0.0%
Malay. 1.9% 0.0% -7.8% 3.2% 4.0% 5.6%
India 9.8% 3.9% 6.1% 13.8% 5.6% 4.4%
Industrial Production*: OECD avg: 2007 2008 2009 Jul '10 Aug '10 Sep '10
Germ 5.5% 0.1% -16.0% 11.3% 11.0% 7.9%
U.K. 0.5% -2.4% -9.7% 1.9% 4.2% 3.8%
USA 2.0% -1.5% -9.8% 7.7% 6.2% 5.4%
apan 2.7% -3.2% -21.8% 14.8% 15.4% 11.1%
Industrial Production*: Asia avg: 2007 2008 2009 Jul '10 Aug '10 Sep '10
R.o K. 8.2% 3.3% 0.0% 15.5% 17.1% 3.9%
China 17.6% 13.0% 11.1% 13.4% 13.9% 13.3%
Taiwan Thailand 7.3% 7.8% -1.5% 5.8% -6.4% -4.8% 20.7% 16.3% 23.4% 8.7% 12.2% 8.1%
Ind. Production*: E.Europe & S. America avg: 2007 2008 2009 Jul '10 Aug '10 Sep '10
Russia 6.6% 2.6% -9.7% 5.9% 7.0% 6.2%
Czech. 8.5% -0.7% -12.3% 5.3% 12.9% 12.2%
Hung. 8.4% -0.6% -17.3% 11.5% 14.9% 10.9%
Despite the current travails in the Eurozone surrounding the Irish debt crisis and the fear that other fringe nations which currently maintain high budget deficits may be forced to appeal for financial assistance, the Ifo index of German business confidence rose by 1.6 points month-on-month in November. It now stands at 109.3 points. This is its highest value since January 1991. In contrast to the austerity packages being implemented by many European governments, the Japanese Parliament has recently passed a new stimulus package worth $61bn. This aims to create new jobs, help small businesses and increase consumer spending. October was the twentieth consecutive month in which Japanese consumer prices have fallen, which is symptomatic of the deflation that the Japanese economy has been suffering from over the past few m onths. •
Poland 9.6% 3.9% -1.2% 10.4% 13.5% 11.8%
Arge. 5.4% 4.1% -3.5% 3.0% 5.9% 7.7%
Brazil 5.9% 2.8% -7.1% 8.7% 8.9% 6.3%
•
Industrial Production 30 % change 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 Atlantic
-15
Pacific
-20 -25
3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 9 ' 9 ' 9 ' 9 ' 9 ' 9 ' 9 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 1 ' n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n n a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a a J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J
Currency Trends Spot ~ & Forward# ... end: 2007 2008 2009 Sep Oct Nov 26-Nov 3mo.# 12mo.#
end: 2007 2008 2009 Sep Oct Nov
Euro 1.46 1.41 1.42 1.30 1.39 1.37 1.34
U.K. 1.99 1.47 1.59 1.56 1.58 1.60 1.58
Japan 114.15 90.67 91.79 84.51 81.95 82.59 83.60
1.34 1.33
1.58 1.57
83.50 83.00
R.o K. H.Kong 940.60 7.80 1,299.55 7.75 1,180.08 7.76 1,168.53 7.77 1,125.71 7.76 1,121.95 7.75 1,137.65 7.76
Sing. 1.45 1.45 1.41 1.34 1.30 1.29 1.31
Switz. 1.14 1.07 1.05 1.01 0.97 0.98 1.00
N'way 5.47 7.19 5.89 6.09 5.83 5.94 6.07
Exchange Rate Trends China 7.30 6.84 6.83 6.76 6.68 6.64 6.65
#Forward Rates as of: 26-Nov
Index Jan'00=100
170
$/Sterling $/Yen $/Euro
160 150 140 130 120 110
SDR 1.57 1.54 1.56 1.52 1.57 1.56 1.54
India 39.42 48.46 46.81 46.25 44.50 44.82 45.52
Australia 1.14 1.47 1.14 1.07 1.02 1.00 1.02
100 90 80
8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 ' 0 ' 1 ' 1 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 0 ' 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' 1 ' ' r n l g t v y l c n b r g p v c n r u u c a p p a J u e o e a o e a e u J u D J F A M A S N D J M A J A O N
26-Nov *% change year-on-year. Source: IMF, OECD, The Economist. ~Currency units per US$ except £, Euro and SDR. #Forward Rates: The FT.
Interest Rate Trends ...
Inflation & Prices …
Prime Lending Rates: avg: 2007 2008 2009 Sep Oct Nov 26-Nov
Euro
U.K.
Switz.
Japan
3.9% 3.8% 1.2% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0%
6.5% 5.6% 1.6% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
4.1% 3.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.6% 0.6%
1.8% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
Clarkson Research Services
Consumer Prices $ Libor U.S.A. 6 mths. avg: 8.1% 5.2% 2007 5.1% 3.0% 2008 3.3% 1.1% 2009 3.3% 0.5% Aug 3.3% 0.5% Sep 3.3% 0.4% 0 Oct 3.3% 0.5% Latest Page 12
Eur
USA
Japan
2.6% 3.9% 1.0% 2.3% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0%
2.9% 0.1% 3.9% 1.4% -0.4% -1.3% 1.1% -0.9% 1.1% -0.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Prices in $/bbl or $/t
Crude Grain Steel Oil Wheat Ship Plate OECD Brent USG Japan 2.4% 72.29 267 643 3.7% 98.67 343 1,118 0.0% 60.93 234 707 1.6% 73.78 288 700 1.7% 78.85 287 700 0.0% 84.49 295 700 0.0% 86.38 283 730 26-Nov-10
Ship Demand Trends Oil Tanker Demand ....
in million barrels per day 2007
2008
2009
2010*
% Chg 2010/09
Oil Production World N. America W. Euro e FSU OPEC
Crude Oil NGL's/Cond.
83.1 7.8 4.1 9.6 30.5 4.9
83.9 7.6 3.9 9.5 31.5 5.0
82.8 8.1 3.7 9.6 28.6 5.3
84.3 7.9 3.4 9.7 29.2 5.5
1.8% -2.0% -7.4% 1.3% 2.2% 2.9%
23.6 0.3 0.9 6.4 16.0
24.3 0.3 1.0 6.4 16.6
22.3 0.3 1.1 6.4 14.5
22.9 0.3 1.1 6.4 15.1
2.7% 0.0% 1.2% 0.0% 4.1%
10.0 6.4 4.1 20.5
9.8 6.7 4.2 20.6
9.1 6.0 3.1 18.2
9.4 5.8 3.1 18.4
3.9% -2.8% 1.0% 1.2%
3.4 2.0 0.6 6.1
3.1 2.1 0.5 5.8
2.7 2.1 0.5 5.4
2.5 2.2 0.6 5.3
-7.2% 0.8% 15.2% -2.0%
VLCC Demand Middle-East Output # Less: Red Sea ex ort E.Med export Refinery T'put Gulf Crude Exports
Crude Oil Trade Imports:
USA Eur-4 Japan Total Imports (listed)
Products Trade Imports:
USA Eur-4 Ja an Total Imports (listed)
*2010 data are projections/annualised figures. World Total includes NGL's; #Mid-E output is sum of OPEC and non-OPEC crude production. Oil production data sourced from IEA.
Dry Bulk Demand ....
in million tonnes 2007
2008
2009
2010*
2010/09
120.2 51.2 487.3 156.6 815.2
118.7 53.5 497.9 148.1 818.2
87.5 48.9 566.3 102.9 805.6
109.8 57.3 635.7 130.4 933.3
25.4% 17.2% 12.3% 26.8% 15.9%
139.0 46.2 377.1 562.2 241.9
140.4 49.5 435.9 625.8 625.8
105.5 42.1 614.6 762.2 362.4
134.3 55.1 590.3 779.8 395.0
27.3% 31.0% -3.9% 2.3% 9.0%
186.1 83.4 211.1 480.6 250.4 36.5 29.2 66.8 382.9
190.5 98.2 205.4 494.0 262.1 51.8 30.9 62.0 406.8
162.4 112.2 178.4 453.0 271.8 43.7 26.9 67.9 410.4
184.8 115.3 159.3 459.4 298.4 62.5 31.0 67.9 459.8
13.8% 2.8% -10.7% 1.4% 9.8% 42.9% 15.3% 0.0% 12.0%
96.9 22.4 9.6 26.9 16.3 172.2
90.3 20.9 13.1 26.5 24.9 175.8
73.2 22.5 19.9 16.7 24.3 156.6
84.1 18.5 20.6 23.5 27.4 174.1
15.0% -17.8% 3.5% 40.6% 12.6% 11.2%
Iron Ore Trade Imports:
Japan S.Korea China Total Imports (listed) Exports: Australia
Coal Trade Imports:
Japan S.Korea EU-25 # Total Imports (listed) Exports: Australia USA Canada South Africa Total Exports (listed)
Grain Trade Exports:
USA (ex soya) Canada Australia Arg. (ex soya) EU-25 # Total Ex orts (listed)
$,000/day 200
33
OPEC Oil Production
175
32
VLCC Earnings
150
31
125
30
100
29
75
28
50
27
25
26 6 0 p e S
7 7 7 8 8 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 n y p n y a a e a a J M S J M
8 0 p e S
9 9 9 0 0 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 n y p n y a a e a a J M S J M
0 0 1 p e S
Major Oil Trades News: Construction of a pipeline which will transport crude • from Abu Dhabi’s oilfields to Fujairah has been completed. Oil will begin to flow on a trial basis in December, as testing for leaks begins. The pipeline will allow Abu Dhabi to bypass the risky Strait of Hormuz and offset the reliance on oil terminals in the Arabian Gulf. The 370km pipeline will carry around 1.5m bpd of Murban crude. The pipeline may further boost Fujairah’s importance as an oil hub.
% Chg
Steel Production Japan S.Korea P.R. China EU-12 Total Steel Prod. (listed)
OPEC Production & VL Earnings 34 m. bpd
Steel Production & Cape Earnings 180 Index
$,000/day 180
170
160
160
140
150
120
140
100
130
80
120
60
110
40
Steel Production Index Capesize Earnin s
100 90 6 0 t c O
7 0 b e F
7 0 n u J
7 0 t c O
8 0 b e F
8 0 n u J
20 0 8 0 t c O
9 0 b e F
9 0 n u J
9 0 t c O
0 1 b e F
0 1 n u J
0 1 t c O
Major Dry Bulk Trades News: Data released by the World Steel Association shows that • global steel output reached 117.6mt in October. This represents y-o-y growth of 2%, and an increase of 5% compared to global production in September 2010. Chinese output totalled 50.3mt, a slight decline compared to October last year, but this was more than offset by a strong performance by the other major steelmaking countries. This week shipowner Mitsui OSK Lines and mining • giant Vale signed a 25-year agreement to ship iron ore from Brazil to China. As a result of the contract, MOL will order two 300,000 dwt VLOCs from Universal Shipbuilding.
2010 data are projections/annualised figures, seasonally adjusted from latest year-to-date figures. #EU 25 to 2006, then EU27.
Clarkson Research Services
Page 13
26-Nov-10
World Fleets & Orderbooks Total Cargo Fleet ..m. Dwt
01-Nov-10
Year End 2006
2007
2008
2009
OIL TANKERS >10k dwt OIL TANKERS <10k dwt CHEMICAL TANKERS OTHER TANKERS BULKERS COMBOS LPG CARRIERS LNG CARRIERS CONTAINERSHIPS MULTI-PURPOSE GENERAL CARGO RO-RO CAR CARRIERS REEFERS OFFSHORE (AHTS/PSV) OTHER CARGO WORLD CARGO FLEET
336.7 354.2 371.2 396.5 10.8 11.1 11.5 11.9 29.7 33.8 39.0 42.9 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.5 368.2 392.1 417.9 459.3 8.9 8.2 7.9 7.1 12.4 13.0 14.4 14.8 15.1 17.7 22.4 26.1 128.4 144.6 161.3 169.1 24.0 25.2 26.3 25.9 95.7 96.5 97.0 37.9 10.1 10.2 10.3 10.1 7.9 8.8 9.9 9.8 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.6 4.6 5.0 5.6 6.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.3 1,071.7 1,139.5 1,213.7 1,236.2
Tanker Fleet ..m. Dwt
Year End
VLCC 200,000+ Suezmax 120-200,000 Aframax 80-120,000 Panamax 60-80,000 Small 10-60,000 of which: Specialised >10,000 TOTAL FLEET of which:
Combos in Oil Laid-up Storage ACTIVE FLT.
<10,000 >10,000 Single Hull Double Hull
>10,000
Bulk Carrier Fleet ..m. Dwt Capesize Panamax Handymax Handysize TOTAL FLEET Combos in Dry Laid-up Storage ACTIVE FLEET
100,000+ 60-100,000 40-60,000 10-40,000
LPG Carrier Fleet ,000m³ <5,000 cbm 5-20,000 cbm 20-40,000 cbm 40-60,000 cbm >60,000 cbm TOTAL FLEET TOTAL M. DWT
2006
2007
2008
142.4 52.6 71.5 21.3 75.3 26.3 18.1 363.1 91.3 271.8 4.0 1.0 1.5 364.6
147.6 54.8 76.4 23.9 81.4 29.9 18.8 384.2 81.7 302.5 1.2 0.8 1.1 383.5
152.8 55.4 81.1 26.1 90.2 34.3 20.0 405.6 66.9 338.7 2.6 0.6 0.6 406.9
No. 3,842 4,975 3,562 648 7,989 74 1,185 358 4,960 2,986 14,886 2,154 669 1,784 5,115 1,437 56,624
No.
160.8 543 60.3 409 87.7 879 27.6 397 97.8 3,213 37.5 1,600 21.0 7,585 434.1 5,441 47.3 518 384.4 4,922 3.5 37 2.6 27 3.3 17 431.7 5,434
2006
2007
2008
2009
No.
121.3 101.6 71.7 73.6 368.2 5.1 0.4 0.3 372.6
131.6 108.1 76.9 75.4 392.1 6.7 0.3 0.3 398.2
143.4 114.7 83.0 76.8 417.9 5.3 0.6 0.3 422.4
170.1 120.9 92.1 76.2 459.3 3.3 0.6 0.2 461.8
1,118 1,769 2,107 2,995 7,989 33 6 4 8,012
2008
1,326 1,902 2,027 1,466 8,466 15,186 12.4
1,377 2,027 2,301 1,360 8,822 15,886 13.0
1,407 2,210 2,480 1,368 10,500 17,964 14.4
409.3 11.9 45.2 3.6 519.8 8.4 14.8 28.0 182.7 26.3 38.0 9.6 10.1 6.6 6.9 8.3 1,329.5
805 102 552 40 3,187 5 126 26 624 514 187 78 128 7 513 27 6,921
2009
117.4 0.6 10.9 0.3 272.8 1.6 1.4 1.9 45.2 7.1 1.3 1.0 2.2 0.1 1.4 0.4 465.8
2010
28.7% 10.8 4.9% 0.4 24.1% 3.7 9.0% 0.1 52.5% 31.2 19.2% 0.3 9.4% 0.3 6.9% 0.6 24.7% 2.4 27.1% 2.0 3.5% 0.47 10.8% 0.2 22.2% 0.6 1.6% 0.02 19.7% 0.78 4.8% 0.15 35.0% 53.9
2011 55.7 0.2 5.5 0.1 120.3 1.3 0.5 0.6 19.9 3.5 0.66 0.6 1.2 0.00 0.34 0.17 210.6
2012+ 50.9 0.1 1.7 0.1 121.3 0.0 0.6 0.7 22.8 1.6 0.21 0.3 0.5 0.09 0.24 0.07 201.2
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule No.
m.Dwt % Fleet
2010
2011
2012+
164.1 62.7 92.7 28.4 101.0 39.7 21.4 449.0 31.5 417.4 4.2 3.1 3.4 446.7
198 150 142 86 590 361 333 1,166
62.1 23.4 15.6 6.3 19.6 9.7 2.1 127.1
5.6 1.6 1.5 0.4 4.8 2.9 1.2 13.8
28.6 10.1 8.0 3.8 10.2 5.1 0.7 60.8
27.9 11.8 6.1 2.1 4.6 1.7 0.2 52.6
m.Dwt 200.4 132.7 105.7 81.0 519.8 3.9 0.3 0.2 523.2
No. ,000m³
1,447 652 2,263 269 2,758 102 1,164 20 11,096 142 18,728 1,185 14.8 1,185
m.Dwt % Fleet
m.Dwt
01-Nov-10
Year End 2007
No.
01-Nov-10
Year End
2006
m.Dwt
01-Nov-10 2009
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
1,491 2,265 2,938 1,164 11,366 19,224 14.8
37.9% 37.3% 16.8% 22.3% 19.4% 24.4% 9.9% 28.3%
Increase in size of Tanker Fleet:
7.0% 3.4%
2009/2008 2010*/2009
* year to date
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule No. 668 876 809 834 3,187
m.Dwt % Fleet
2010
129.9 71.0 44.9 27.0 272.8
12.6 7.4 7.2 4.0 31.2
64.8% 53.5% 42.5% 33.3% 52.5%
2011 57.3 28.8 20.7 13.5 120.3
2012+ 60.1 34.9 16.9 9.5 121.3
Increase in size of Bulkcarrier Fleet:
9.9% 13.2%
2009/2008 2010*/2009
* year to date
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule No.
,000m³ % Fleet
2010
2011
2012+
33 71 15 0 7 126 126
120 598 407 0 568 1,693 1.39
53 96 105 0 83 337 0.28
58 163 201 0 243 666 0.53
8 340 101 0 242 690 0.58
8.0% 26.4% 13.8% 0.0% 5.0% 8.8% 9.4%
"Oil Tankers" covers vessels in the crude oil & oil products sectors, including tankers with IMO 3 grade specification. "Chemical" includes tankers with IMO 1&2 grade specification. "Specialised" covers IMO 1&2 chemical tankers and other tankers designed for the carriage of specialist liquids..
Clarkson Research Studies
Page 14
26-Nov-10
World Fleets & Orderbooks LNG Carrier Fleet ,000m³ <40,000 cbm 40-60,000 cbm 60-100,000 cbm >100,000 cbm TOTAL FLEET TOTAL M. DWT
Containership Fleet ,000 Teu 100-999 teu 1-1,999 teu 2-2,999 teu 3,000 &+ teu (Panamax) 3-7,999 teu (Post-Pmax) 8,000 &+ teu (Post-Pmax) TOTAL FLEET TOTAL M. DWT
Multipurpose Fleet ,000 Teu 100 - 199 teu 200 - 349 teu 350 - 499 teu 500 - 749 teu 750 - 999 teu 1000 &+ teu TOTAL FLEET MPP FLEET M. DWT GC FLEET M. DWT
Ro-Ro Vessel Fleet, m. Dwt <2,000 dwt 2,000-5,000 dwt 5,000-7,500 dwt 7,500-10,000 dwt 10-15,000 dwt 15,000&+ dwt TOTAL FLEET CAR CARRIERS
Reefer Vessel Fleet m. ft³. < 100,000 cu ft 100-199,999 cu ft 200-299,999 cu ft 300-449,999 cu ft 450-549,999 cu ft > 550,000 cu ft TOTAL FLEET TOTAL M. DWT
01-Nov-10
Year End 2006
2007
2008
2009
262 253 1,233 25,430 27,178 15.1
252 253 1,307 30,133 31,945 17.7
197 163 1,383 39,045 40,787 22.4
206 163 1,383 45,840 47,592 26.1
2006
2007
2008
No. ,000m³
No.
,000m³ % Fleet
16 3 17 322 358 358
4 0 0 22 26 26
44 0 0 3,562 3,606 1.9
226 122 1,295 49,564 51,208 28.0
01-Nov-10
Year End 2009
No. ,000teu
665.6 714.8 752.3 740.6 1,481.5 1,640.6 1,781.1 1,773.0 1,594.5 1,703.9 1,819.1 1,781.7 2,538.7 2,946.0 3,337.6 3,587.9 2,244.8 2,413.9 2,682.7 2,884.1 948.7 1 ,362.0 1,780.6 2,125.9 9,473.8 10,781.2 12,153.5 12,893.3 128.4 144.6 161.3 169.1
1,227 735.3 1,275 1,807.2 705 1,792.3 951 3,902.9 510 3,067.0 292 2,738.5 4,960 14,043.4 4,960 182.7
Year End
01-Nov-10
2006
2007
2008
100.5 183.2 187.5 325.8 114.5 183.7 1,095.2 24.0 95.7
104.9 194.5 195.3 355.7 126.5 185.1 1,162.0 25.2 96.5
110.3 203.2 196.9 391.3 136.7 187.5 1,225.8 26.3 97.0
2009
No. ,000teu
113.9 757 204.7 788 192.4 467 384.5 635 138.3 166 207.2 173 1,241.1 2,986 25.9 2,986 37.9 14,886
115.1 206.0 188.0 389.5 146.7 229.1 1,274.4 26.3 38.0
01-Nov-10
Year End 2006
2007
2008
2009
No.
0.4 1.2 1.5 1.1 1.7 4.0 10.1 7.9
0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.8 4.1 10.2 8.8
0.4 1.2 1.6 1.2 1.8 4.1 10.3 9.9
0.5 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.9 4.0 10.1 9.8
1,224 286 228 128 153 135 2,154 669
2006
2007
2008
2009
No.
21.8 38.5 50.6 72.6 94.7 56.3 334.7 7.2
21.7 39.0 50.6 71.8 94.2 57.6 334.9 7.2
21.3 38.7 49.4 66.5 89.4 58.0 323.3 6.9
21.3 38.5 48.1 62.4 83.3 56.0 309.6 6.6
946 253 186 149 159 91 1,784 1,784
19.5% 0.0% 0.0% 7.2% 7.0% 6.9%
2010 22 0 0 1,012 1,034 0.6
2011 22 0 0 1,115 1,137 0.6
2012+ 0 0 0 1,436 1,436 0.7
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule No.
,000teu % Fleet
48 104 45 83 108 236 624 624
37.7 140.9 116.0 341.9 612.1 2,594.1 3,842.6 45.2
5.1% 7.8% 6.5% 8.8% 20.0% 94.7% 27.4% 24.7%
2010 19.7 31.1 27.0 40.9 30.3 47.1 196.1 2.4
2011
2012+
17.9 74.5 35.9 132.6 322.6 1,114.3 1,697.8 19.9
0.0 35.2 53.2 168.4 259.2 1,432.8 1,948.7 22.8
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule No. 55 103 50 88 98 120 514 514 187
,000teu % Fleet 7.9 28.5 19.1 53.8 88.5 178.9 376.8 7.1 1.34
6.9% 13.8% 10.2% 13.8% 60.3% 78.1% 29.6% 27.1% 3.5%
2010 2.7 15.1 5.8 17.3 23.3 41.1 105.3 2.0 0.47
2011 3.7 11.9 9.9 29.6 48.3 86.1 189.4 3.5 0.66
2012+ 1.5 1.5 3.5 7.0 17.0 51.7 82.2 1.6 0.21
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
m.Dwt
No.
0.5 1.0 1.5 1.1 1.9 3.7 9.6 10.1
1 0 15 13 29 20 78 128
01-Nov-10
Year End
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
m.Dwt % Fleet 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.04 2.25
0.1% 0.0% 5.8% 9.4% 18.4% 13.8% 10.8% 22.2%
2010
2011
2012+
0.00 0.00 0.01 0.05 0.06 0.05 0.17 0.56
0.00 0.00 0.04 0.05 0.22 0.27 0.59 1.24
0.00 0.00 0.04 0.01 0.06 0.19 0.29 0.45
Orderbook & Delivery Schedule
m.ft³
No.
m.ft³
% Fleet
2010
2011
2012+
21.2 38.2 46.3 55.9 79.0 56.0 296.6 6.6
0 0 0 0 0 7 7 7
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.6 4.55 0.11
0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 8.1% 1.5% 1.6%
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 0.65 0.02
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.00 0.00
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.9 3.90 0.09
Note: All fleet figures are from the Clarkson Research Ship and Orderbook Databases, expressed in the units indicated. All dwt figures are metric. Annual data are as at year end, monthly data at the beginning of the month. The databases comprise vessels of 100gt and above.
A "Sources & Methods" document which describes the methodology by which Clarkson Research gathers and manipulates the data set out in this report, including the calculation of the time charter equivalent (TCE) earnings for tankers and bulk carriers, is available on our website at www.clarksons.net. Further enquiries may be made to the addresses set out on the back page.
Clarkson Research Studies
Page 15
26-Nov-10
Analysis Anxiety, Tension, Mood Swings? Could it be PMT? Feeling irritable, moody and tense? Go straight to your doctor and if you are a shipowner, the chances are he will diagnose Particle Matter Trauma (PMT) brought on by the stress of the constantly shifting regulations about ship emissions. This condition is more serious for those with Low Sul phur Dementia (LSD), the inability to remember which fuel grade to use, when and where. Emission Control Timeline
0.5% in 2020. That’s no problem but insist on the use of gasoil. the limits are much tougher in designated Emission Control Areas Dealing with the Trauma (ECAs) which regulate both SOx and NOx. Today, ships sailing in ECA The complex matrix of regional and waters must use 1% sulphur fuel oil fuel quality issues leaves shipping and from January 2015 0.1% sulphur companies in a dilemma. Simply usfuel oil. Currently, ECAs cover the ing the fuel that regulators require only the Baltic and North Seas but the looks an easy option, but may not be. 200 mile N. American ECA comes It requires adequate bunker tank seginto force in August 2012 and Japan regations to switch between high is examining a scheme. Also (nothing seas, territorial and port requirements. to do with IMO) ships in EU ports Another challenge is that the correct grades must be available at the start must burn 0.1% gasoil. of the voyage, which could be anywhere in the world. You Are What You Burn
Let's start with the emissions timest line. Under MARPOL Annex 6, on 1 January 2012 a global sulphur cap of 3.5% will be introduced, falling to Ship emissions are a problem because marine diesel engines have traditionally used Heavy Fuel Oil (HFO) Feeling a Bit Heavy About The Fuel? which no one else 1400 $/tonne wants. HFO is the refinCrude O il Price 1300 380CST Bunkers ing waste left after dis1200 380CST low sulphur tillation, containing 4Gasoil 1100 6% sulphur and various MDO Rotterdam 1000 sediments. But it is 90 0 25% cheaper than crude 80 0 oil (see graph). To drive 70 0 auxiliary engines most 60 0 ships have used Marine 50 0 Diesel Oil (MDO), 40 0 which is a better quality fuel with about 2% sul30 0 phur and costs 50% 20 0 more than HFO. Fi10 0 nally, low-sulphur 0 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 0 0 0 MGO and HFO are 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 0 - 1 - 1 - 1 v y v y v y g b g b g b g now available, though u o e a u o e a u o e a u A N F M A N F M A N F M A regulators sensitive Source: Clarkson Research Servi ces about particular matter
Scrubbing Up MARPOL Annex 6 also allows Exhaust Gas Cleaning Systems (EGCS) which remove emissions from the exhaust in service. EGCSs capable of removing sulphur and particular matter have been tested at sea, but are not in use yet. They are big, heavy and face the risk that better technology will appear before 2015. Take an Aspirin and Forget It So there you have it. It's easy to understand why busy shipowners struggle to keep up with this complex mix of regulatory requirements and technical options. And although the matter is not yet quite mission-critical, it's even easier to understand why some might wake up in a sweat worrying about the obstacle course which lies ahead. Have a nice day.
Graph of the Week Shipping Intelligence Weekly, 26 November, 2010 Published by: Clarkson Research Services Ltd. St. Magnus House, 3, Lower Thames Street, London EC3R 6HE, England. Tel: + (44) (0) 20 7334 3134 Fax: + (44) (0) 20 7522 0330 Telex: 8812927 CLTNKA G E-mail:
[email protected] Web-site: http://www.crsl.com
Editorial Board: Analysis Publisher Editor Production S&P Tankers Specialised Gas Dry Cargo Freight Derivatives Singapore Sydney, Australia
Martin Stopford Cliff Tyler C. Kennedy D. Lee K. Taylor R. Knight R. Whittet J. R. Evans G. Campbell A. Gray G. Lane P. M. Quirk
Shipping Intelligence Weekly is published 50 times a year. It reviews the markets for Crude, Products, Specialised and Gas tankers, Bulk carriers, Offshore and Liner vessels as well as the second-hand, new building and demolition markets. It provides details of freight rates, earnings, prices and activity in all these markets; fleet statistics; trade, financial and economic indicators. It is available on subscription at a price of £675/£690 a year (within Europe/outside Europe) including postage. Whilst care has been taken in the production of this review, no liability can be accepted for any loss incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information contained herein. The information in this report may not be reproduced without the written permission of Clarkson Research Services Limited.
