Transcript
ONTARIO [FEBRUARY 2016]
METHODOLOGY Mainstreet surveyed surveyed a random sample of 2,623 Ontarians O ntarians by Smart IVR™ on IVR™ on February 16, 2016. A mixture of landlines and a nd cell phones were surveyed. The margin of error for the poll is +/- 1.91%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: North: +/-4.85%; East: +/-4.78%; Southwest: +/-4.56%; South Central: +/- 4.67%; GTA +/-4.7%; Toronto (416) : +/-4.58% 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
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"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
PCs LEAD IN ONTARIO; HORWATH MOST POPULAR LEADER February 22, 2016 (Toronto, (Toronto, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds the PC Party continuing to lead in Ontario - albeit al beit by a narrow margin with the Liberals Li berals and NDP separated by just 3 percentage points. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 1.91%, 19 times o ut of 20. “For the Ontario Liberals this is some good news on the heels of losing the Whitby-Oshawa by-election,” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “But at the same time Kathleen Wynne is the least popular leader in Ontario which limits li mits their room for growth.” Among Decided and Leaning Voters: PCs 36% (-4%), Ontario Liberals 33% (+5%), NDP 26% (+1%), Greens 5% (-2%) - compared to the results from November 1st. “Some of this is likely a bounce from the Trudeau government government and the positive press that surrounds it - but this could also be other issues playing out including beer sales in supermarkets and the Premier’s positions on Energy East and transit infrastructure. For the PCs these numbers show that while Patrick Brown has had a successful tenure so far far,, Ontarians still don’t know who he is. This will be an ongoing liability, if the PC Party doesn’t introduce Brown to Ontarians the other two parties certainly will. While Brown has notched two by-elections wins and now has a seat in the legislature, the two two wins came from solid PC ridings. ” “For the NDP these numbers signal s ignal strong room for growth. Andrea Horwath is the most popular leader in the province. However, the NDP is third not only among all voters but also among undecided voters who lean in a certain direction. They are faring best in Northern and Southwestern Ontario but their Toronto number is low l ow - though if it is concentrated in the downtown core it could translate into new seats. ” Patrick Brown: 32% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 42% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: +6 Andrea Horwath: 43% Approve, 26% Disapprove, 31% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: +17 Kathleen Wynne: 29% Approve, 60% Disapprove, 11% Not Sure. Approval - Disapproval: -31 About Mainstreet Research Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority majo rity Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election. -30Available for Interview from Toronto: Quito Maggi,
[email protected] For more information: David Valentin, (613) 698-5524 - david@mainstreetr
[email protected] esearch.ca
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If a provincial election were held today, today, which party would you support? LEANING AND DECIDED
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0 April 9
April 28 OLP
PCs
Sept 21 ONDP
Nov 1
Green
LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN UNDECIDED SAMPLE
18-34 24% 27% 30% 6% 14% 318
LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN UNDECIDED SAMPLE
ON 26% 30% 23% 4% 17% 2623
F eb 16
Undecided
35-49 25% 30% 21% 5% 19% 595 North 26% 25% 27% 4% 18% 408
50-64 28% 31% 20% 3% 19% 850 East 25% 32% 18% 3% 21% 421
65+ 30% 35% 18% 2% 15% 860
SW 20% 35% 28% 4% 13% 462
Male Female 23% 29% 36% 25% 23% 23% 4% 4% 14% 20% 1255 1368
SC 28% 28% 24% 5% 15% 441
GTA 26% 30% 21% 3% 21% 434
416 32% 28% 21% 4% 14% 457
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If a provincial election were held today, which party would you support? (DECIDED ( DECIDED AND LEANING)
45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 April 9
April 28 OLP
Sept 21 PCs
ONDP
LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN SAMPLE
18-34 30% 30% 33% 7% 298
LIBERAL PROGRESSIVE CONSERVATIVE NDP GREEN SAMPLE
ON 33% 36% 26% 5% 2411
Nov 1
F eb 16
Green
35-49 31% 37% 25% 7% 536 North 33% 31% 31% 5% 371
50-64 36% 37% 23% 4% 769 East 34% 38% 22% 5% 380
65+ Male Female 35% 28% 37% 40% 40% 31% 21% 26% 27% 3% 6% 5% 808 1184 1227
SW 24% 40% 30% 5% 433
SC 34% 32% 28% 6% 410
GTA 35% 36% 25% 5% 389
416 38% 32% 24% 6% 428
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And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (UNDECIDED ONLY)
21%
39%
23%
6% 11%
ND P
PC
Liberal
Green
Undecided
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Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as PC Leader?
LEANING AND DECIDED
32%
42%
26%
Approve
Disapprove
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
18-34 19% 9% 6% 22% 44%
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
ON 21% 11% 6% 20% 42%
Not Sure
35-49 21% 12% 4% 20% 42% North 19% 12% 5% 22% 42%
50-64 22% 11% 7% 18% 42% East 24% 10% 5% 16% 45%
65+ 22% 13% 7% 18% 41%
SW 22% 12% 8% 19% 39%
Male Female 24% 18% 12% 11% 5% 7% 20% 20% 40% 44%
SC 20% 12% 5% 21% 42%
GTA 416 20% 20% 12% 10% 5% 6% 19% 23% 43% 41%
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Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader?
LEANING AND DECIDED
31%
43%
26%
Approve
Disapprove
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
18-34 25% 22% 8% 17% 28%
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
ON 20% 23% 9% 17% 31%
Not Sure
35-49 19% 23% 8% 16% 34% North 26% 21% 6% 19% 28%
50-64 18% 23% 10% 17% 33% East 16% 23% 9% 19% 33%
65+ 17% 24% 11% 19% 29%
SW 25% 23% 10% 17% 25%
Male Female 20% 20% 24% 22% 9% 9% 17% 17% 30% 32%
SC 19% 24% 11% 16% 30%
GTA 18% 24% 9% 15% 34%
416 19% 23% 7% 18% 32%
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Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her job as Premier of Ontario?
LEANING AND DECIDED
11% 11 %
29% 29 %
60% 60 %
Approve
Disapprove
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
18-34 17% 10% 16% 48% 9%
STRONGLY APPROVE STRONGLY APP ROVE SOMEWHAT APPROVE SOMEWHAT DISAPPROVE STRONGLY STRONGL Y DISAPPROVE DISAPP ROVE NOT SURE
ON 17% 12% 16% 44% 11%
Not Sure
35-49 16% 12% 16% 43% 12% North 16% 12% 16% 43% 12%
50-64 18% 12% 17% 42% 10% East 16% 12% 17% 46% 8%
65+ 18% 13% 15% 42% 11%
SW 14% 9% 18% 50% 10%
Male Female 15% 19% 11% 13% 16% 16% 49% 40% 10% 12%
SC 19% 13% 17% 41% 10%
GTA 17% 12% 16% 41% 14%
416 19% 15% 14% 43% 10%
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SCRIPT If a provincial election were held today, today, which party would you support? The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne The Progressive Conservatives Conservatives led by Patrick Brown The NDP led by Andrea Horwath The Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided And which party are you leaning towards voting for? The Ontario Liberal Party led by Kathleen Wynne The Progressive Conservatives Conservatives led by Patrick Brown The NDP led by Andrea Horwath The Green Party led by Mike Schreiner Undecided Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Kathleen Wynne is handling her h er job as Premier of Ontario? Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Andrea Horwath is handling her job as NDP Leader? Do you approve or disapprove disapprove of the way Patrick Brown is handling his job as Progressive Conservative Conservative Leader? Strongly Approve Somewhat Approve Somewhat Disapprov Disapprove e Strongly Disapprov Disapprove e Not Sure
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RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN GTA Ajax Aurora—Oak Ridges—Richmond Hill Brampton Centre Brampton East Brampton North Brampton South Brampton West Durham King—Vaughan Markham—Stouffville Markham—Thornhill Markham—Unionville Mississauga Centre Mississauga East—Cooksville Mississauga—Erin Mills Mississauga—Lakeshore Mississauga—Malton Mississauga—Streetsville Oshawa Pickering—Uxbridge Richmond Hill Thornhill Vaughan—Woodbridge Whitby Barrie—Innisfil Barrie—Springwater—Oro-Medonte Dufferin—Caledon Newmarket—Aurora Simcoe North York—Simcoe
NORTH Algoma—Manitoulin—Kapuskasing Huron—Bruce Kenora Nickel Belt Nipissing—Timiskaming Parry Sound—Muskoka Sault Ste. Marie Sudbury Thunder Bay—Rainy River Thunder Bay—Superior North Timmins—James Bay
EAST Bay of Quinte Carleton Glengarry—Prescott—Russell Haliburton—Kawartha Haliburton—Kaw artha Lakes—Brock Hastings—Lennox and Addington Kanata—Carleton Kingston and the Islands Lanark—Frontenac—Kingston Leeds—Grenville—Thousand Leeds—Grenville— Thousand Islands and Rideau Lakes Nepean Northumberland—Peterborough South Orléans Ottawa Centre Ottawa South Ottawa West—Nepean Ottawa—Vanier Peterborough—Kawartha Renfrew—Nipissing—Pembroke Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
SOUTH-CENTRAL Brantford—Brant Burlington Flamborough—Glanbrook Haldimand—Norfolk Hamilton Centre Hamilton East—Stoney Creek Hamilton Mountain Hamilton Wes West—Ancaster—Dundas t—Ancaster—Dundas Milton Niagara Centre Niagara Falls Niagara West Oakville Oakville North—Burlington Simcoe—Grey St. Catharines
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RIDING & REGION BREAKDOWN (CONT) SOUTH-WEST Bruce—Grey—Owen Sound Cambridge Chatham-Kent—Leamington Elgin—Middlesex—London Essex Guelph Kitchener Centre Kitchener South—Hespeler Kitchener—Conestoga Lambton—Kent—Middlesex London North Centre London West London—Fanshawe Oxford Perth—Wellington Sarnia—Lambton Waterloo Wellington—Halton Hills Windsor West Windsor—Tecumseh
TORONTO (416) Beaches—East York Davenport Don Valley East Don Valley North Don Valley West Eglinton—Lawrence Etobicoke Centre Etobicoke North Etobicoke—Lakeshore Humber River—Black Creek Parkdale—High Park Scarborough Centre Scarborough North Scarborough Southwest Scarborough—Agincourt Scarborough—Guildwood Scarborough—Rouge Park Spadina—Fort York Toronto Centre Toronto—Danforth Toronto—St. Paul's University—Rosedale Willowdale York Centre York South—Weston
ONLY WE CALLED THE LIBERAL MAJORITY.
“I recommend "Raiders of o f the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics politi cs should hear h ear.. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week
before we voted. Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls. His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation
for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015 Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs. Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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